Demographic history of Jerusalem

Arab market, Old City of Jerusalem.

Children in Jerusalem.

Jerusalem's population size and composition has shifted many times over its 5,000 year history. Since medieval times, the Old City of Jerusalem has been divided into Jewish, Muslim, Christian, and Armenian quarters.

Most population data pre-1905 is based on estimates, often from foreign travellers or organisations, since previous census data usually covered wider areas such as the Jerusalem District. These estimates suggest that since the end of the Crusades, Muslims formed the largest group in Jerusalem until the mid-19th century. Between 1838 and 1876, a number of estimates exist which conflict as to whether Jews or Muslims were the largest group during this period, and between 1882 and 1922 estimates conflict as to exactly when Jews became a majority of the population.

In 2003, the total population of Jerusalem was 693,217, including 464,527 Jews and 228,690 "Arabs and others" (Choshen 1), that same year the population of the Old City was 3,965 Jews and 31,405 "Arabs and others" (Choshen 12).

Overview

Jerusalemites are of varied national, ethnic and religious denominations and include European, Middle Eastern and African Jews, Georgians, Armenians, and Muslim, Protestant, Greeks, Greek Orthodox Arabs, Syrian Orthodox and Coptic Orthodox Arabs, among others. Many of these groups were once immigrants or pilgrims that have over time become near-indigenous populations and claim the importance of Jerusalem to their faith as their reason for moving to and being in the city.

Jerusalem's long history of conquests by competing and different powers has resulted in different groups living in the city many of whom have never fully identified or assimilated with a particular power, despite the length of their rule. Though they may have been citizens of that particular kingdom and empire and involved with civic activities and duties, these groups often saw themselves as distinct national groups (see Armenians, for example). The Ottoman millet system, whereby minorities in the Ottoman Empire were given the authority to govern themselves within the framework of the broader system, allowed these groups to retain autonomy and remain separate from other religious and national groups. Some Palestinian residents of the city prefer to use the term Maqdisi or Qudsi as a Palestinian demonym.

Historical population by religion

The tables below provide data on demographic change over time in Jerusalem, with an emphasis on the Jewish population. Readers should be aware that the boundaries of Jerusalem have changed many times over the years and that Jerusalem may also refer to a district or even a subdistrict under Ottoman, British, or Israeli administration, see e.g. Jerusalem District. Thus, year-to-year comparisons may not be valid due to the varying geographic areas covered by the population censuses.

1st century Jerusalem

The population of Jerusalem in the time of Josephus has been estimated to be around 80,000. The total population of Pharisees, the forerunners of modern Rabbinic Judaism, was around 6,000 ("exakischilioi"), according to Josephus.

During the First Jewish–Roman War(66–73 CE), the population of Jerusalem was estimated at 600,000 persons by Roman historian Tacitus, while Josephus, estimated that there were as many as 1,100,000, who were killed in the war. Josephus also wrote that 97,000 were sold as slaves. After the Roman victory over the Jews, as many as 115,880 dead bodies were carried out through one gate between the months of Nisan and Tammuz.

Arguing that the numbers given in historical sources were usually grossly exaggerated, Hillel Geva estimated from the archaeological evidence that the actual population of Jerusalem before its 70 CE destruction was at most 20,000.

Middle Ages

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
c. 1130	0	0	30,000	30,000	?	Runciman
1267	2*	?	?	?	Nahmanides, Jewish Scholar
1471	250*	?	?	?	?	Baron
1488	76*	?	?	?	?	Baron
1489	200*	?	?	?	?	Yaari, 1943

* Indicates families.

Ottoman era

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
1525–6	1,194	3,704	714	5,612	Ottoman taxation registers*	Cohen and Lewis
1538–9	1,363	7,287	884	9,534	Ottoman taxation registers*	Cohen and Lewis
1553–4	1,958	12,154	1,956	16,068	Ottoman taxation registers*	Cohen and Lewis
1596–77	?	8,740	252	?	Ottoman taxation registers*	Cohen and Lewis
1723	2,000	?	?	?	Van Egmont & Heyman, Christian travellers

Modern era

Muslim "relative majority"

Arab boys at Jerusalem YMCA, 1938.

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
1806	2,000	4,000	2,774	8,774	Ulrich Jasper Seetzen, Frisian explorer	Sharkansky, 1996
1815	4,000-5,000	?	?	26,000	William Turner	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1824	6,000	10,000	4,000	20,000	Fisk and King, Writers
1832	4,000	13,000	3,560	20,560	Ferdinand de Géramb, French monk	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001

Muslim or Jewish "relative majority"

Kindergarten in Rishon Lezion, c.1898.

Between 1838 and 1876, conflicting estimates exist regarding whether Muslims or Jews constituted a "relative majority" (or plurality) in the city.

Writing in 1841, the biblical scholar Edward Robinson noted the conflicting demographic estimates regarding Jerusalem during the period, stating in reference to an 1839 estimate by Moses Montefiore: "As to the Jews, the enumeration in question was made out by themselves, in the expectation of receiving a certain amount of alms for every name returned. It is therefore obvious that they here had as strong a motive to exaggerate their number, as they often have in other circumstances to underrate it." In 1843, Reverend F.C. Ewald, a Christian traveler visiting Jerusalem, reported an influx of 150 Jews from Algiers. He wrote that there were now a large number of Jews from the coast of Africa who were forming a separate congregation.

Between 1856 and 1880, Jewish immigration to Palestine more than doubled, with the majority settling in Jerusalem. The majority of these immigrants were Ashkenazi Jews from Eastern Europe, who subsisted on Halukka.

In 1881–82, a group of Jews arrived from Yemen as a result of messianic fervor. After living in the Old City for several years, they moved to the hills facing the City of David, where they lived in caves. In 1884, the community, numbering 200, moved to new stone houses built for them by a Jewish charity.

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
1838	3,000	4,500	3,500	11,500	Edward Robinson	Edward Robinson, 1841
1844	7,120	5,000	3,390	15,510	Dr. Ernst-Gustav Schultz, Prussian consul
1846	7,515	6,100	3,558	17,173	Titus Tobler, Swiss explorer	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1849	2,084 families	?	?	?	Moses Montefiore census
1850	13,860	?	?	?	Dr. Ascher, Anglo-Jewish Association
1850	630*	1,025*	738*	2,393*	?	Alexander Scholch, 1985
1851	5,580	12,286'	7,488	25,354	Official census	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1853	8,000	4,000	3,490	15,490	César Famin, French diplomat	Famin
1856	5,700	10,300	3,000	18,000	Ludwig August von Frankl, Austrian writer	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1857	7,000	?	?	10-15,000	HaMaggid periodical	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1862	8,000	6,000	3,800	17,800	HaCarmel periodical	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1864	8,000	4,000	2,500	15,000	British Embassy	Dore Gold, 2009
1866	8,000	4,000	4,000	16,000	John Murray travel guidebook	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1867	?	?	?	14,000	Mark Twain, Innocents Abroad, Chapter 52
1867	4–5,000	6,000	?	?	Ellen-Clare Miller, Missionary
1869	3,200*	n/a	n/a	n/a	Rabbi H. J. Sneersohn	New York Times
1869	9,000	5,000	4,000	18,000	Hebrew Christian Mutual Aid Society
1869	7,977	7,500	5,373	20,850	Liévin de Hamme, Franciscan missionary	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1871	4,000	13,000	7,000	20,560	Karl Baedeker travel guidebook	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1876	4,000	13,000	3,560	20,560	Bernhard Neumann	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001

Jews as absolute or relative majority

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
1882	9,000	7,000	5,000	21,000	Wilson	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1885	15,000	6,000	14,000	35,000	Goldmann	Kark and Oren-Nordheim, 2001
1893	>50%	?	?	~40,000	Albert Shaw, Writer	Shaw, 1894
1896	28,112	8,560	8,748	45,420	Calendar of Palestine for the year 5656	Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1905	13,300	11,000	8,100	32,400	1905 Ottoman census (only Ottoman citizens)	U.O.Schmelz
1922	33,971	13,413	14,669	62,578	Census of Palestine (British)	Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1931	51,200	19,900	19,300	90,053	Census of Palestine (British)	Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1944	97,000	30,600	29,400	157,000	?	Harrel and Stendel, 1974
1967	195,700	54,963	12,646	263,307		Harrel, 1974

After Jerusalem Law

Year	Jews	Muslims	Christians	Total	Original Source	As quoted in
1980	292,300	?	?	407,100	Jerusalem Municipality
1985	327,700	?	?	457,700	Jerusalem Municipality
1987	340,000	121,000	14,000	475,000	Jerusalem Municipality
1990	378,200	131,800	14,400	524,400	Jerusalem Municipality
1995	417,100	182,700	14,100	617,000	Jerusalem Municipality
1996	421,200	?	?	602,100	Jerusalem Municipality
2000	448,800	?	?	657,500	Jerusalem Municipality
2004	464,500	?	?	693,200	Jerusalem Municipality
2005	469,300	?	?	706,400	Jerusalem Municipality
2007	489,480	?	?	746,300	Jerusalem Municipality
2011	497,000	281,000	14,000	801,000	Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Population of Jerusalem by religion.

As of 24 May 2006, Jerusalem's population was 724,000 (about 10% of the total population of Israel), of which 65.0% were Jews (c. 40% of whom live in East Jerusalem), 32.0% Muslim (almost all of whom live in East Jerusalem) and 2% Christian. 35% of the city's population were children under age of 15. In 2005, the city had 18,600 newborns.

These official Israeli statistics refer to the expanded Israel municipality of Jerusalem. This includes not only the area of the pre-1967 Israeli and Jordanian municipalities, but also outlying Palestinian villages and neighbourhoods east of the city, which were not part of Jordanian East Jerusalem prior to 1967. Demographic data from 1967 to 2012 showed continues growth of Arab population, both in relative and absolute numbers, and the declining of Jewish population share in the overall population of the city. In 1967, Jews were 73.4% of city population, while in 2010 the Jewish population shrank to 64%. In the same period the Arab population increased from 26,5% in 1967 to 36% in 2010. In 1999, the Jewish total fertility rate was 3.8 children per woman, while the Palestinian rate was 4.4. This led to concerns that Arabs would eventually become a majority of the city's population.

Between 1999 and 2010, the demographic trends reversed themselves, with the Jewish fertility rate increasing and the Arab rate decreasing. In addition, the number of Jewish immigrants from abroad choosing to settle in Jerusalem steadily increased. By 2010, there was a higher Jewish than Arab growth rate. That year, the city's birth rate was placed at 4.2 children for Jewish mothers, compared with 3.9 children for Arab mothers. In addition, 2,250 Jewish immigrants from abroad settled in Jerusalem. The Jewish fertility rate is believed to be still currently increasing, while the Arab fertility rate remains on the decline.

Jerusalem had population of 801,000 in 2011, of which Jews compromised 497,000 (62%), Muslims 281,000 (35%), Christians 14,000 (around 2%) and 9,000 (1%) were not classified by religion.

Demographic key dates

• 4500–3500 BCE: First settlement established near Gihon Spring (earliest archeological evidence)
• c. 1550–1400 BCE: Jerusalem becomes a vassal to the New Kingdom of Egypt
• c. 1000 BCE: King David attacks and captures Jerusalem, which becomes capital of the United Kingdom of Israel. (Biblical source only)
• 732 BCE: Jerusalem becomes a vassal of the Neo-Assyrian Empire
• 587–6 BCE: Conquest of Jerusalem by Babylonians; Nebuchadnezzar II fought Pharaoh Apries's attempt to invade Judah. Jerusalem mostly destroyed including the First Temple, and the city's prominent citizens deportated to Babylon (Biblical sources only)
• 539 BCE: Cyrus the Great conquers Babylon, allowing Babylonian Jews to return from the Babylonian captivity to Jerusalem and rebuild the Temple (Biblical sources only, see Cyrus (Bible) and the Return to Zion)
• 350 BCE: Jerusalem revolts against Artaxerxes III, who retakes the city and burns it down in the process. Jews who supported the revolt are sent to Hyrcania on the Caspian Sea.
• 332–200 BCE: Jerusalem capitulates to Alexander the Great, and is later incorporated into the Ptolemaic Kingdom (301BCE) and Seleucid Empire (200BCE).
• 175 BCE: Antiochus IV Epiphanes accelerates Seleucid efforts to eradicate the Jewish religion, outlaws Sabbath and circumcision, sacks Jerusalem and erects an altar to Zeus in the Second Temple after plundering it.
• 164 BCE: The Hasmoneans take control of part of Jerusalem, whilst the Seleucids retain control of the Acra (fortress) in the city and most surrounding areas.
• 63 BCE: Roman Empire under Pompey takes city
• 70 CE: Titus ends the major portion of Great Jewish Revolt and destroys Herod's Temple. The Sanhedrin is relocated to Yavne, and the city's leading Christians relocate to Pella
• 136: Hadrian formally reestablishes the city as Aelia Capitolina, and forbids Jewish and Christian presence in the city. Restrictions over Christian presence in the city are relaxed two years later.
• 324–25: Emperor Constantine holds the First Council of Nicaea and confirms status of Jerusalem as a Christian patriarchate. A significant wave of Christian immigration to the city begins. The ban on Jews entering the city remains in force, but they are allowed to enter once a year to pray at the Western Wall on Tisha B'Av
• c. 380: Tyrannius Rufinus and Melania the Elder found the first monastery in Jerusalem on the Mount of Olives
• 614: Jerusalem falls to Jewish and Persian forces, specifically Khosrow II's Sasanian Empire until it is retaken in 629. This was a result of the Jewish revolt against Heraclius, a Jewish insurrection against the Byzantine Empire across the Levant. The Church of the Holy Sepulchre is burned and much of the Christian population is massacred.
• 636–7: Caliph Umar the Great conquers Jerusalem. Patriarch Sophronius and Umar are reported to have agreed the Pact of Umar, which guaranteed Christians freedom of religion but prohibited Jews from living in the city according to Muhammad ibn Jarir al-Tabari. The Armenian Apostolic Church began appointing its own bishop in Jerusalem. in 638.
• 797: Abbasid–Carolingian alliance – the Church of the Holy Sepulchre was restored and the Latin hospital was enlarged, encouraging Christian travel to the city.
• 1009–30: Fatimid Caliph Al-Hakim orders destruction of churches and synagogues in the empire, including the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. Caliph Ali az-Zahir authorizes them rebuilt 20 years later.
• 1077: Jerusalem revolts against the rule of Emir Atsiz ibd Uvaq who retakes the city and massacres the local population.
• 1099: First Crusaders capture Jerusalem and slaughter most of the city's Muslim and Jewish inhabitants. The Dome of the Rock is converted into a church.
• 1187: Saladin captures Jerusalem from Crusaders and allows Jewish and Orthodox Christian settlement. The Dome of the Rock is converted to an Islamic center of worship again.
• 1229: A 10-year treaty is signed allowing Christians freedom to live in the unfortified city. The Ayyubids retained control of the Muslim holy places.
• 1244: Mercenary army of Khwarazmians destroyed the city.
• 1260: Jerusalem raided by the Mongols under Nestorian Christian general Kitbuqa. Hulagu Khan sends a message to Louis IX of France that Jerusalem remitted to the Christians under the Franco-Mongol alliance
• 1267: Nahmanides goes to Jerusalem and prays at the Western Wall. Reported to have found only two Jewish families in the city
• 1482: The visiting Dominican priest Felix Fabri described Jerusalem as "a collection of all manner of abominations". As "abominations" he listed Saracens, Greeks, Syrians, Jacobites, Abyssianians, Nestorians, Armenians, Gregorians, Maronites, Turcomans, Bedouins, Assassins, a sect possibly Druzes, Mamelukes, and "the most accursed of all", Jews. Only the Latin Christians "long with all their hearts for Christian princes to come and subject all the country to the authority of the Church of Rome".
• 1517: The Ottoman Empire captures Jerusalem under Sultan Selim I who proclaims himself Caliph of the Islamic world
• 1604: First Protectorate of missions agreed, in which the Christian subjects of Henry IV of France were free to visit the Holy Places of Jerusalem. French missionaries begin to travel to Jerusalem.
• 1700: Judah the Pious and 1,000 followers settle in Jerusalem.
• 1774: The Treaty of Küçük Kaynarca is signed giving Russia the right to protect all Christians in Jerusalem.
• 1821: Greek War of Independence – Jerusalem's Christian population (the majority being Greek Orthodox), were forced by the Ottoman authorities to relinquish their weapons, wear black and help improve the city's fortifications
• 1837: Galilee earthquake of 1837 results in Jews from Safed and Tiberias resettling in Jerusalem.
• 1839–40: Rabbi Judah Alkalai publishes "The Pleasant Paths" and "The Peace of Jerusalem", urging the return of European Jews to Jerusalem and Palestine.
• 1853–4: A treaty is signed confirming France and the Roman Catholic Church as the supreme authority in the Holy Land with control over the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, contravening the 1774 treaty with Russia and triggering the Crimean War.
• 1860: The first Jewish neighborhood (Mishkenot Sha'ananim) is built outside the Old City walls, in an area later known as Yemin Moshe, by Moses Montefiore and Judah Touro.
• 1862: Moses Hess publishes Rome and Jerusalem, arguing for a Jewish homeland in Palestine centered on Jerusalem
• 1873–75: Mea Shearim is built.
• 1882: The First Aliyah results in 35,000 Jewish immigrants entering the Palestine region
• 1901: Ottoman restrictions on Jewish immigration to and land acquisition in Jerusalem district take effect
• 1901–14: The Second Aliyah results in 40,000 Jewish immigrants entering the Palestine region
• 1917: The Ottomans are defeated at the Battle of Jerusalem during the World War I and the British Army takes control. The Balfour Declaration had been issued a month before.
• 1919–23: The Third Aliyah results in 35,000 Jewish immigrants entering the Mandatory Palestine region
• 1924–28: The Fourth Aliyah results in 82,000 Jewish immigrants entering the Mandatory Palestine region
• 1929–39: The Fifth Aliyah results in 250,000 Jewish immigrants entering the Mandatory Palestine region
• 1947–49: Palestine war led to displacement of Palestinian Arab and Jewish populations in the city and its division. All Jewish residents of the eastern part of the city were kicked out by Arab forces and the entire Jewish Quarter was destroyed. Palestinian Arab villages such as Lifta, al-Maliha, Ayn Karim and Deir Yassin were depopulated.
• 1967: The Six-Day War results in East Jerusalem being captured by Israel and few weeks later expansion of the Israeli Jerusalem Municipality to East Jerusalem and some surrounding area. The Old City is captured by the IDF and the Moroccan Quarter, including 135 houses and the Al-Buraq mosque, is demolished, creating a plaza in front of the Western Wall. Israel declares Jerusalem unified and announces free access to holy sites of all religions.
• 2010: Demographic trends fully reverse themselves; Jews now have a higher fertility rate than Arabs, mainly due to very high birth rate among Haredi Jews.

References

Bibliography

• Salo Baron, A Social and Religious History of the Jews, Columbia University Press, 1983.
• Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics information page
• Jerusalem: Jewish, Muslim, and Christian Population (1910-2000) at israelipalestinianprocon.org
• Bruce Masters, Christians And Jews In The Ottoman Arab World [,[Cambridge University Press]], 2004.
• Population of Jerusalem until 1945 (Table 10) at mideastweb.org
• Runciman, Steven (1980). The First Crusade. Cambridge. ISBN 0-521-23255-4.

• Usiel Oskar Schmelz, in Ottoman Palestine, 1800-1914: studies in economic and social history, Gad G. Gilbar, Brill Archive, 1990 [1]
• [2]
• Estimating the Population of Ancient Jerusalem, Magen Broshi, BAR 4:02, Jun 1978
• Antiquities of the Jews, 17.42
• Josephus (The Wars Of The Jews Book VI Ch 9 Sec 3)
• Avraham Yaari, Igrot Eretz Yisrael, p. 98.(Tel Aviv, 1943)
• The registers give counts of tax-paying households, bachelors, religious men, and disabled men. We followed Cohen and Lewis on taking 6 as the average household size, even though they call it "conjectural" and note that other scholars have suggested averages between 5 and 7.
• [3] Archived May 13, 2007 at the Wayback Machine
• Fisk and King, 'Description of Jerusalem,' in The Christian Magazine, July 1824, page 220. Mendon Association, 1824. (The figures are preceded by the comment "the following estimate seems to us as probably correct as any one we have heard". The authors also note that, "some think the Jews more numerous than the Mussulmans.")
• Jerusalem Illustrated History Altas, Martin Gilbert, Jerusalem 1830-1850, p.37
• Edward Robinson, Biblical Researches in Palestine, Mount Sinai and Arabia Petraea: a journal of travels in the year 1838, Volume 2, 1841, page 85
• Wolff, Press, "The Jewish Yishuv", pp 427-433, as quotes in Kark and Oren-Nordheim
• Mark Twain, Chapter 52, Innocents Abroad'
• Ellen Clare Miller, Eastern Sketches – notes of scenery, schools and tent life in Syria and Palestine. Edinburgh: William Oliphant and Company. 1871. Page 126: 'It is difficult to obtain a correct estimate of the number of inhabitants of Jerusalem...'
• The New York Times, February 19, 1869 [4]; See also I. Harold Scharfman, The First Rabbi, Pangloss Press, 1988, page 524 which reports the figure as 3,100.
• Burns, Jabez. Help-Book for Travelers to The East. 1870. Page 75
• Hebrew Christian Mutual Aid Society. Almanack of 1869
• Die heilige Stadt und deren Bewohner in ihren naturhistorischen, culturgeschichtlichen, socialen und medicinischen Verhältnissen Published by Der Verfasser, 512 pages
• Review Of Reviews. Volume IX. Jan-Jun, 1894. Albert Shaw, Editor. Page 98. "The present population of Jerusalem is not far from forty thousand, and more than half are Jews."
• Usiel Oskar Schmelz, in Ottoman Palestine, 1800-1914: studies in economic and social history, page 35, Gad G. Gilbar, Brill Archive, 1990 [5]
• Schaff's Seven Ecumenical Councils: First Nicaea: Canon VII: "Since custom and ancient tradition have prevailed that the Bishop of Aelia [i.e., Jerusalem] should be honored, let him, saving its due dignity to the Metropolis, have the next place of honor."; "It is very hard to determine just what was the “precedence” granted to the Bishop of Aelia, nor is it clear which is the "metropolis" referred to in the last clause. Most writers, including Hefele, Balsamon, Aristenus and Beveridge consider it to be Cæsarea; while Zonaras thinks Jerusalem to be intended, a view recently adopted and defended by Fuchs; others again suppose it is Antioch that is referred to."
• [Sharkansky, Ira (1996). Governing Jerusalem: Again on the world's agenda. Detroit: Wayne State University Press. p. 63.]
• Hussey, J.M. 1961. The Byzantine World. New York, New York: Harper & Row, Publishers, p. 25.
• Karen Armstrong. 1997. Jerusalem: One City, Three Faiths. New York, New York: Ballantine Books, p. 229. ISBN 0-345-39168-3
• Bosworth, Clifford Edmund. 2007. "Historic Cities of the Islamic World
• [6] Archived December 10, 2010 at the Wayback Machine