2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
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250px County Results
Ige: 60-70% 70–80% |
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Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Hawaii and Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii.
After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality. Ige's vote share of 62.67% is the highest of any gubernatorial candidate in Hawaiin history surpassing the previous record of 62.53% set by Linda Lingle in 2006.
Contents
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii, Chair, House District 29[1]
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[2][3][4]
- David Ige, incumbent Governor[2][5]
- Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate[6]
- Van Tanabe
Withdrew
- Clayton Hee, former State Senator and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2014[7][8]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Clayton Hee |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa) | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |
Results
Democratic primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,572 | 51.4 | |
Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,631 | 44.4 | |
Democratic | Ernest Caravahlo | 5,662 | 2.3 | |
Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,298 | 0.9 | |
Democratic | Richard Kim | 1,576 | 0.6 | |
Democratic | Van Tanabe | 775 | 0.3 | |
Total votes | 242,514 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Bernard Carvalho, Mayor of Kauai County[10]
- Will Espero, State Senate Vice President and candidate for HI-01 in 2014[11]
- Josh Green, State Senator[3][12][11]
- Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state Board of Education member[13]
- Jill Tokuda, State Senator[2]
Withdrew
- Alan Arakawa, Mayor of Maui County[14] (running for Maui County Council)[15]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernard Carvalho |
Will Espero |
Josh Green |
Kim Coco Iwamoto |
Jill Tokuda |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
Merriman River Group | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |
Results
Democratic primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Josh Green | 74,845 | 31.4 | |
Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,124 | 28.6 | |
Democratic | Bernard P. Carvalho | 45,825 | 19.2 | |
Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,243 | 14.3 | |
Democratic | Will Espero | 15,463 | 6.5 | |
Total votes | 238,500 | 100.0 |
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former State Representative, and former State Senator [6][16]
- Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, Former Assistant Superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[17]
- Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[18][16]
Withdrew
- Bob McDermott, State Representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002[19][20]
Endorsements
Andria Tupola |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Carroll |
Raymond L'Heureux |
Andria Tupola |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |
Results
Republican primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,297 | 55.5 | |
Republican | John Carroll | 10,974 | 35.2 | |
Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,885 | 9.3 | |
Total votes | 31,156 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Marissa Kerns
- Steve Lipscomb
- Jeremy Low
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marissa Kerns |
Jeremy Low |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |
Results
Republican primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,758 | 35.4 | |
Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,543 | 34.7 | |
Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,232 | 29.9 | |
Total votes | 27,533 | 100.0 |
Green primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Brewer
Results
Green primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Green | Jim Brewer | 454 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 454 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Renee Ing
Results
Green primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Green | Renee Ing | 444 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 444 | 100.0 |
Nonpartisan primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Selina Blackwell
- Link El
- Terrence Teruya
Results
Nonpartisan primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Terrence Teruya | 543 | 47.7 |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Selina Blackwell | 497 | 43.7 |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Link El | 98 | 8.6 |
Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0 |
Lieutenant Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Magaoay
- Paul Robotti
Results
Nonpartisan primary results[9] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Paul Robotti | 536 | 50.6 |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 2px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Ernest Magaoay | 523 | 49.4 |
Total votes | 1,059 | 100.0 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[22] | Solid D | October 16, 2018 |
The Washington Post[23] | Safe D | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[24] | Solid D | October 22, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[25] | Solid D | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] | Safe D | October 19, 2018 |
Real Clear Politics[27] | Safe D | October 21, 2018 |
Daily Kos[28] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
Fox News[29][lower-alpha 1] | Likely D | October 19, 2018 |
Politico[30] | Solid D | October 19, 2018 |
Governing[31] | Safe D | October 22, 2018 |
- Notes
- ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Merriman River Group | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
Mason-Dixon | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
Hypothetical polling | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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|
Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,934 | 62.67% | +13.22% | |
Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,719 | 33.70% | -3.38% | |
Green | Jim Brewer | 10,123 | 2.59% | N/A | |
style="background-color: Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/color; width: 5px;" | | [[Nonpartisan (United States)|Template:Nonpartisan (United States)/meta/shortname]] | Terrence Teruya | 4,067 | 1.04% | N/A |
Total votes | 390,843 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
References
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External links
- Official campaign websites
- Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites