45th Canadian federal election

The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

Since the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on 20 September that year, resulted in the incumbent Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, retaining government and their minority status parliament, whilst also picking up five more seats than they had at dissolution. On 27 September 2021, Annamie Paul announced that she was resigning as the Green Party of Canada leader; on 10 November 2021, she stated she had formally resigned and left the Green Party.

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution of seats following each decennial Canadian census. The 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and is expected to be completed in September 2023. On 15 October 2021, the Chief Electoral Officer announced that allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. Notwithstanding this, Parliament retains the power to modify the redistricting process as occurred in the last redistribution.

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal on the ballot, despite being disavowed during the campaign, and sits as an independent.

Name		Ideology	Position	Leader	2021 result		Current standing
					Votes (%)	Seats
	Liberal	Liberalism Social liberalism	Centre to centre-left	Justin Trudeau	32.62%	160 / 338	158 / 338
	Conservative	Conservatism Economic liberalism Fiscal conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Candice Bergen (interim)	33.74%	119 / 338	119 / 338
	Bloc Québécois	Quebec nationalism	Centre-left	Yves-François Blanchet	7.64%	32 / 338	32 / 338
	New Democratic	Social democracy Democratic socialism	Centre-left to left-wing	Jagmeet Singh	17.82%	25 / 338	25 / 338
	Green	Green politics		Amita Kuttner (interim)	2.33%	2 / 338	2 / 338
	Independents	N/A			0.19%	0 / 338	1 / 338
	Vacant	N/A					1 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

Member of Parliament		Electoral district	Province or territory	Date announced
	Candice Bergen	Portage—Lisgar	Manitoba	September 6, 2022

Timeline

See also: 44th Canadian Parliament

Changes in seats held (2021–)

House of Commons – Changes in seats held

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Spadina—Fort York	22 November 2021	Kevin Vuong	█ Liberal	Excluded from caucus			█ Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore	27 May 2022	Sven Spengemann	█ Liberal	Resigned		TBA

2021

• 27 September – Annamie Paul announced that she was beginning the process of resigning as leader of the Green Party.
• 10 November – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party. The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.
• 15 November – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole. Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order. The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.
• 24 November – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.
• 5 December – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.

2022

• 2 February – Erin O'Toole was removed as the leader of the Conservative Party, by a caucus vote. Candice Bergen selected by the party caucus to serve as interim leader.
• 22 March – Liberal Party and the NDP reach a confidence and supply agreement lasting until June 2025.
• 24 May – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election officially began, pursuant to the party's constitution.
• 28 May – Liberal Sven Spengemann resigned as the MP of Mississauga–Lakeshore to accept a role in the United Nations.
• 10 September – The 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election concludes. The new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada is announced.
• 19 November – The 2022 Green Party of Canada leadership election concludes. The new leader of the Green Party of Canada is announced.

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election

File:Opinion polling during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election.svg

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.