2012 Montana gubernatorial election

2012 Montana gubernatorial election

November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)

x155px Nominee Steve Bullock Rick Hill Party Democratic Republican Running mate John Walsh Jon Sonju Popular vote 236,450 228,879 Percentage 48.9% 47.3%

300px County results Bullock:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Hill:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

Governor before election Brian Schweitzer Democratic Elected Governor Steve Bullock Democratic

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. Representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Steve Bullock, Montana Attorney General

• Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard

• Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

• Running mate: Steve Nelsen, founder of the Montana Conservation Corps

Withdrew

• Larry Jent, state senator

Declined

• John Bohlinger, Lieutenant Governor of Montana
• Carl Borgquist, president of Grasslands Renewable Energy of Bozeman
• Dave Wanzenried, state senator
• Pat Williams, former U.S. Representative

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock	Larry Jent	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	573	± 4.1%	70%	6%	—	24%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	76,738	86.6
	Democratic	Heather Margolis	11,823	13.4
Total votes			88,561	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Bob Fanning, retired businessman

• Running mate: Joel Boniek, former state representative
• Former running mate: Chuck Baldwin, pastor and Constitution Party nominee for president in 2008 (dropped out February 2012)

• Rick Hill, former U.S. Representative

• Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator

• Neil Livingstone, terrorism and national security analyst

• Running mate: Ryan Zinke, state senator

• Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director

• Running mate: Al Olszewski, orthopedic surgeon and Carroll College Trustee

• Ken Miller, former state senator and former chairman of the Montana Republican Party

• Running mate: Bill Gallagher, Public Service Commissioner

• Jim O'Hara, Chouteau County Commissioner

• Running mate: Scott Swingley, private investigator and former trooper in the Montana Highway Patrol

• Corey Stapleton, former state senator

• Running mate: Bob Keenan, former President of the Montana Senate

Withdrew

• Jeff Essmann, Majority Leader of the Montana Senate
• Drew Turiano, real estate investor

Declined

• Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Essmann	Bob Fanning	Rick Hill	Neil Livingstone	Jim Lynch	Ken Miller	Jim O'Hara	Corey Stapleton	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	403	± 4.88%	—	1%	33%	5%	4%	12%	4%	7%	35%
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	700	± 3.7%	5%	1%	37%	3%	4%	10%	3%	2%	35%

Results

File:2012 Montana gubernatorial Republican primary county map.svg

Primary results by county:

Hill

•   Hill—51-60%
•   Hill—41-50%
•   Hill—31-40%
•   Hill—21-30%

Stapleton

•   Stapleton—31-40%
•   Stapleton—21-30%

Miller

•   Miller—51-60%
•   Miller—41-50%
•   Miller—31-40%
•   Miller—21-30%

O'Hara

•   O'Hara—51-60%
•   O'Hara—31-40%

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rick Hill	46,802	34.4
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	24,661	18.1
	Republican	Ken Miller	24,496	18.0
	Republican	Jim O'Hara	16,653	12.2
	Republican	Neil Livingstone	12,038	8.8
	Republican	Jim Lynch	8,323	6.1
	Republican	Bob Fanning	3,087	2.3
Total votes			136,060	100.0

General election

Candidates

• Steve Bullock (D), Montana Attorney General

• Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard

• Rick Hill (R), former U.S. Representative

• Running mate: Jon Sonju, state senator

• Ron Vandevender (Libertarian), businessman

• Running mate: Marc Mulcahy

Debate

• Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 10, 2012

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Bullock (D)	Rick Hill (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	836	± 3.4%	48%	48%	2%	2%
Mason-Dixon	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	46%	49%	2%	3%
Public Policy Polling	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	42%	43%	8%	7%
Montana State University	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	38%	40%	2%	20%
Mason-Dixon	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	44%	43%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.2%	44%	39%	8%	9%
Public Policy Polling	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	39%	39%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling	November 28–30, 2011	1,625	± 2.4%	38%	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	37%	39%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling	November 10–13, 2010	1,176	± 2.9%	31%	41%	—	28%

Results

2012 Montana gubernatorial election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Steve Bullock	236,450	48.90%	-16.57%
	Republican	Rick Hill	228,879	47.34%	+14.82%
	Libertarian	Ron Vandevender	18,160	3.76%	+1.75%
Total votes			483,489	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

External links

• Elections and Government – Montana Secretary of State

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Steve Bullock for Governor
• Rick Hill for Governor
• Ron Vandevender for Governor