National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

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For other elections that took place on this day, see United Kingdom elections, 2016.
National Assembly for Wales election, 2016
← 2011 5 May 2016 2021 →
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 45.3% Increase 3.1%
  First party Second party Third party
  160x160px 160x160px 160x160px
Leader Carwyn Jones Leanne Wood Andrew R. T. Davies
Party Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative
Leader since 10 December 2009 16 March 2012 14 July 2011
Leader's seat Bridgend Rhondda South Wales Central
Last election 30 seats 11 seats 14 seats
Seats won 29 12 11
Seat change Decrease1 Increase1 Decrease3
Constituency Vote 353,866 209,376 215,597
 % and swing 34.7% Decrease7.6% 20.5% Increase1.2% 21.1% Decrease3.9%
Regional Vote 319,196 211,548 190,846
 % and swing 31.5% Decrease5.4% 20.8% Increase2.9% 18.8% Decrease3.7%
  Fourth party Fifth party
  160x160px
Leader Nathan Gill Kirsty Williams
Party UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 6 December 2014 8 December 2008
Leader's seat North Wales Brecon and Radnorshire
Last election 0 seats 5 seats
Seats won 7 1
Seat change Increase7 Decrease4
Constituency Vote 127,038 78,165
 % and swing 12.5% 7.7% Decrease2.9%
Regional Vote 132,138 65,504
 % and swing 13.0% Increase8.4 6.5% Decrease1.5%
400px
The left side shows constituency winners of the election by their party colours. The right side shows regional winners of the election for the additional members by their party colours.
First Minister before election

Carwyn Jones
Labour

 Elected First Minister

Carwyn Jones
Labour

Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. The National Assembly for Wales election 2016 was held on Thursday 5 May 2016, to elect members of the National Assembly for Wales (AMs). It was the fifth election for the National Assembly, the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006 and the first since the Wales Act 2014.

The governing Labour Party's share of the vote fell by over 7% and 29 Labour AMs were elected, one fewer than in 2011 and two short of an overall majority. Plaid Cymru became the Assembly's second largest party and the official opposition to the Welsh Government with 12 seats, one more than before. The 11 Conservative Party AMs were elected, three fewer than in 2011. Although they did not win a single constituency, the UK Independence Party had 7 members elected through the regional lists vote. The Liberal Democrats had only one AM returned, down from five.

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged 18 or over on election day were entitled to vote. The election was held on the same day as elections for the Scottish Parliament, for the Northern Ireland Assembly, for the Mayor and Assembly of London and in numerous local authorities in England. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers were delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016 as a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.[1] Elections to the Welsh Assembly have now also been permanently moved to a five-year cycle under the Wales Act 2014.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Previously it was not allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list, but this rule was abolished by the Wales Act 2014. The Act also introduced a ban on dual mandates with the House of Commons: an Assembly Member is no longer allowed also to be an MP.

Retiring AMs

The following, previously incumbent AMs, did not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region Departing AM Party
South Wales East region Jocelyn Davies[2] Plaid Cymru
Arfon Alun Ffred Jones[3] Plaid Cymru
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Rhodri Glyn Thomas[4] Plaid Cymru
Cynon Valley Christine Chapman [5] Welsh Labour Party
Llanelli Keith Davies [6] Welsh Labour Party
Ogmore Janice Gregory [7] Welsh Labour Party
Gower Edwina Hart [8] Welsh Labour Party
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Huw Lewis Welsh Labour Party
Delyn Sandy Mewies [9] Welsh Labour Party
Islwyn Gwyn R Price[10] Welsh Labour Party
Neath Gwenda Thomas [8] Welsh Labour Party
Caerphilly Jeffrey Cuthbert[11] Welsh Labour Party
Newport West Dame Rosemary Butler[12] Presiding Officer

Constituency nominations

NB: AMs in office before the election are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Conservative Labour Lib Dem Plaid Cymru Green UKIP[13] Others
Aberavon David Jenkins David Rees Helen Ceri Clarke Bethan Jenkins Jonathan Tier Glenda Davies[13]
Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Mike Priestley Sarah Lesiter-Burgess Trystan Lewis Petra Haig
Alyn and Deeside Mike Gibbs Carl Sargeant Pete Williams Jacqueline Hurst Martin Bennewith Michelle Brown[13]
Arfon Martin Peet Sion Jones Sarah Lloyd Williams Sian Gwenllian
Blaenau Gwent Tracey West Alun Davies Brendan D'Cruz Nigel Copner Kevin Boucher[13]
Brecon and Radnorshire Gary Price Alex Thomas Kirsty Williams Freddy Greaves Grenville Ham Thomas Turton[13]
Bridgend George Jabbour Carwyn Jones Jonathan Pratt James Radcliffe Charlotte Barlow Caroline Jones[13]
Caerphilly Jane Pratt Hefin David Aladdin Ayesh Lindsay Whittle Andrew Creak Sam Gould[13]
Cardiff Central Joel Williams Jenny Rathbone Eluned Parrott Glyn Wise Amelia Womack Mohammed-Sarul Islam[13] Jane Croad (Independent)
Cardiff North Jayne Cowan Julie Morgan John Dixon Elin Walker Jones Chris von Ruhland Haydn Rushworth[13] Fiona Burt (Independent)
Cardiff South and Penarth Ben Grey Vaughan Gething Nigel Howells Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies Anthony Slaughter Hugh Moelwyn-Hughes[13]
Cardiff West Sean Driscoll Mark Drakeford Cadan ap Tomos Neil McEvoy [14] Hannah Pudner Gareth Bennett[13] Elliot Freedman (Independent) Lee Woolls (Vapers In Power)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Matthew Paul Steve Jeacock William Powell Adam Price Freya Amsbury Neil Hamilton[13]
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns Marc Tierney Alistair Cameron Simon Thomas Val Bradley Allan Brookes[13] Chris Overton (independent)
Ceredigion Dr Felix Aubel Iwan Wyn Jones Elizabeth Evans Elin Jones Brian Williams Gethin James[13]
Clwyd South Simon Baynes Ken Skates Aled Roberts Mabon ap Gwynfor Duncan Rees Mandy Jones[13]
Clwyd West Darren Millar Jo Thomas Victor Babu Llyr Huws Gruffydd Julian Mahy David Edwards[13]
Cynon Valley Lyn Hudson Vikki Howells Michael Wallace Cerith Griffiths John Matthews Liz Wilks[13]
Delyn Huw Williams Hannah Blythyn Tom Rippeth Paul Rowlinson Nigel Williams[13]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Neil Fairlamb Ian MacIntyre Stephen Churchman Lord Elis-Thomas Alice Hooker-Stroud Frank Wykes[13] Louise Hughes (Independent)
Gower Lyndon Jones Rebecca Evans Sheila Kingston-Jones Harri Roberts Abi Cherry-Hamer Colin Beckett[13]
Islwyn Paul Williams Rhianon Passmore Matthew Kidner Lyn Ackerman Katy Beddoe Joe Smyth[13]
Llanelli Stefan Ryszewski Lee Waters Gemma-Jane Bowker Helen Mary Jones [6] Guy Martin Smith Kenneth Denver-Rees (Ken Rees)[13] Siân Caiach (Putting Llanelli First)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Elizabeth Simon Dawn Bowden Bob Griffin Brian Thomas Julie Colbran David Rowlands[13]
Monmouth Nick Ramsay Catherine Fookes [15] Veronica German [16] Jonathan Clark Chris Were Tim Price[13] Debby Blakebrough (Independent),[17] Stephen Morris (English Democrats)
Montgomeryshire Russell George Martyn Singleton Jane Dodds Aled Morgan Hughes Richard Chaloner Des Parkinson[13]
Neath Peter Crocker-Jaques Jeremy Miles Frank Little Alun Llewelyn Lisa Rapado Richard Pritchard[13] Stephen Hunt (Independent)
Newport East Munawar Mughal John Griffiths Paul Halliday Tony Salkeld Peter Varley James Peterson[13]
Newport West Matthew Evans Jayne Bryant Liz Newton Simon Coopey Pippa Bartolotti Michael Ford[13] Gruff Meredith (Cymru Sovereign)
Bill Fearnley-Whittingstall (Independent)
Ogmore Jamie Wallis Huw Irranca-Davies Anita Davies Tim Thomas Laurence Brophy Hazel Kendall[13]
Pontypridd Joel James Mick Antoniw Mike Powell Chad Rickard Ken Barker Edwin Allen[13]
Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Dan Lodge Bob Kilmister John Osmond Frances Bryant Howard Lillyman[13]
Rhondda Maria Hill Leighton Andrews Rhys Taylor Leanne Wood[18] Pat Matthews Stephen Clee[13]
Swansea East Sadie Vidal Michael Hedges Charlene Webster Dic Jones Tony Young Clifford Johnson[13]
Swansea West Craig Lawton Julie James Chris Holley David Lloyd Gareth Tucker Rosie Irwin[13] Brian Johnson (Socialist Party of Great Britain)
Torfaen Cllr Graham Smith Lynne Neagle Alison Willott Matthew Woolfall-Jones Steven Jenkins Susan Boucher[13]
Vale of Clwyd Sam Rowlands Ann Jones Gwyn Williams Mair Rowlands Paul Davies-Cooke[13]
Vale of Glamorgan Ross England Jane Hutt Denis Campbell Ian Johnson Alison Haden Lawrence Andrews[13]
Wrexham Andrew Atkinson Lesley Griffiths Beryl Blackmore Carrie Harper Alan Butterworth Jeanette Bassford-Barton[13]
Ynys Môn Clay Theakston Julia Dobson Mark Rosenthal Rhun ap Iorwerth Gerry Wolff Simon Wall[13] Daniel Meredith Ap Eifion Jones (Independent)

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
19–22 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 33% 19% 21% 8% 15% 3% 12%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,011 35% 19% 21% 6% 17% 3% 14%
7–18 Mar 2016 Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council 3,272 34% 22% 21% 6% 15% 3% 12%
9–11 Feb 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer TBA 34% 22% 19% 5% 18% 2% 12%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 35% 23% 20% 5% 15% 2% 12%
21–24 Sep 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 39% 23% 18% 6% 13% 1% 16%
24–26 Jun 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 35% 23% 20% 4% 15% 4% 12%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 35% 22% 21% 6% 12% 3% 13%
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 37% 22% 20% 6% 11% 5% 15%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 34% 21% 18% 7% 13% 7% 13%
2–5 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 35% 22% 19% 6% 12% 6% 13%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 36% 21% 19% 6% 12% 6% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 39% 20% 19% 8% 13% 5% 19%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 41% 21% 20% 8% 7% 2% 20%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 42% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 21%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 43% 19% 20% 9% 7% 3% 23%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 47% 19% 17% 8% 6% 3% 28%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 46% 21% 17% 10% 5% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency) 949,252 42.3% 25.0% 19.3% 10.6% N/A 2.8% 17.3%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
19–22 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 29% 19% 22% 8% 15% 4% 3% 7%
7–11 Apr 2016 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,011 31% 20% 20% 5% 16% 4% 3% 11%
7–18 Mar 2016 Welsh Election Study/Economic & Social Research Council 3,272 31% 22% 22% 5% 14% 4% 3% 9%
9–11 Feb 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer TBA 31% 22% 19% 4% 18% 3% 3% 9%
30 Nov–4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 34% 23% 18% 4% 16% 4% 2% 11%
21–24 Sep 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 34% 24% 18% 5% 14% 4% 2% 10%
24–26 Jun 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 32% 22% 20% 5% 14% 4% 3% 10%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 32% 22% 20% 6% 13% 3% 1% 10%
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 33% 22% 21% 5% 12% 5% 2% 11%
19–21 Jan 2015[19] YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 32% 20% 15% 8% 16% 8% 2% 12%
2–5 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 31% 20% 19% 6% 15% 7% 2% 11%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 31% 21% 16% 5% 17% 7% 3% 10%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 34% 21% 18% 5% 16% 4% 3% 13%
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 35% 19% 17% 7% 14% 6% 2% 16%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 37% 21% 19% 7% 10% 4% 2% 16%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 39% 19% 17% 9% 10% 6% 20%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 40% 19% 15% 9% 10% 7% 21%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 25% 12% 23% 9% 16% 14% 2%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 26% 14% 26% 8% 13% 6% 7% Tie
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional) 949,388 36.9% 22.5% 17.9% 8.0% 4.6% 3.4% 6.7% 14.4%

Results

e • d Welsh Assembly election, 2016
Parties Additional member system Total seats
Constituency Region
Votes  % +/− Seats +/− Votes  % +/− Seats +/− Total +/−  %
Labour 353,866 34.7 -7.6 27 -1 319,196 31.5 -5.4 2 0 29 -1 48.3
Plaid Cymru 209,376 20.5 +1.3 6 +1 211,548 20.8 +3.0 6 0 12 +1 20.0
Conservative 215,597 21.1 -3.9 6 0 190,846 18.8 -3.7 5 -3 11 -3 18.3
UKIP 127,038 12.5 +12.5 0 0 132,138 13.0 +8.5 7 +7 7 +7 11.7
Liberal Democrats 78,165 7.7 -2.9 1 0 65,504 6.5 -1.6 0 -4 1 -4 1.7
Green 25,202 2.5 +2.3 0 0 30,211 3.0 -0.5 0 0 0 0 0.0
Independent 7,032 0.7 -0.6 0 0 1,577 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 44,286 4.4 +4.4 0 0 0 0 0.0
Monster Raving Loony 5,743 0.6 +0.4 0 0 0 0 0.0
Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 2,040 0.2 +0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Welsh Communist Party 2,452 0.2 +0.0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Others 3,107 0.3 -1.1 0 0 9,202 0.9 -5.0 0 0 0 0 0.0

Votes summary

Popular Vote
Labour
  
 31.5%
Plaid Cymru
  
 20.8%
Conservative
  
 18.8%
UKIP
  
 13.0%
Liberal Democrats
  
 6.5%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party
  
 4.4%
Green
  
 3.0%
Other
  
 2.0%
Parliament seats
Labour
  
 48.3%
Plaid Cymru
  
 20.0%
Conservative
  
 18.3%
UKIP
  
 11.7%
Liberal Democrats
  
 1.7%

New members

22 of the members elected to the Assembly in the election were not members of the previous Assembly.

Constituency
Regional

Constituency and regional summary

Mid and West Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales
Constituency Elected member Result
Brecon and Radnorshire Kirsty Williams Liberal Democrat hold
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Adam Price Plaid Cymru hold
Carmarthen West and
South Pembrokeshire		 Angela Burns Conservative hold
Ceredigion Elin Jones Plaid Cymru hold
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dafydd Elis-Thomas Plaid Cymru hold
Llanelli Lee Waters Labour hold
Montgomeryshire Russell George Conservative hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Conservative hold
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: Mid and West Wales
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Plaid Cymru Simon Thomas 1 ±0 56,754 26.3% −0.5%
Conservative 0 ±0 44,461 20.6% -4.6%
Labour Joyce Watson
Eluned Morgan		 2 ±0 41,975 19.4% -3.1%
UKIP Neil Hamilton 1 +1 25,042 11.6% +7.2%
Liberal Democrat 0 -1 23,554 10.9% −1.9%

North Wales

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales
Constituency Elected member Result
Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Conservative hold
Alyn and Deeside Carl Sargeant Labour hold
Arfon Siân Gwenllian Plaid Cymru hold
Clwyd South Ken Skates Labour hold
Clwyd West Darren Millar Conservative hold
Delyn Hannah Blythyn Labour hold
Vale of Clwyd Ann Jones Labour hold
Wrexham Lesley Griffiths Labour hold
Ynys Môn Rhun ap Iorwerth Plaid Cymru hold
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: North Wales
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour 0 ±0 57,528 28.1% -4.0%
Plaid Cymru Llyr Huws Gruffydd 1 ±0 47,701 23.3% +1.9%
Conservative Mark Isherwood 1 -1 45,468 22.2% -4.6%
UKIP Nathan Gill
Michelle Brown		 2 +2 25,518 12.5% +7.5%
Liberal Democrat 0 -1 9,345 4.6% −1.3%

South Wales Central

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central
Constituency Elected member Result
Cardiff Central Jenny Rathbone Labour hold
Cardiff North Julie Morgan Labour hold
Cardiff South and Penarth Vaughan Gething Labour hold
Cardiff West Mark Drakeford Labour hold
Cynon Valley Vikki Howells Labour hold
Pontypridd Mick Antoniw Labour hold
Rhondda Leanne Wood Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
Vale of Glamorgan Jane Hutt Labour hold
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales Central
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour 0 ±0 78,366 33.9% -7.1%
Plaid Cymru Neil McEvoy 1 ±0 48,357 20.9% +1.9%
Conservative Andrew R. T. Davies
David Melding		 2 ±0 42,185 18.3% -3.7%
UKIP Gareth Bennett 1 +1 23,958 10.4% +6.4%
Liberal Democrat 0 -1 14,875 6.4% −1.5%

South Wales East

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East
Constituency Elected member Result
Blaenau Gwent Alun Davies Labour hold
Caerphilly Hefin David Labour hold
Islwyn Rhianon Passmore Labour hold
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden Labour hold
Monmouth Nick Ramsay Conservative hold
Newport East John Griffiths Labour hold
Newport West Jayne Bryant Labour hold
Torfaen Lynne Neagle Labour hold
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales East
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour 0 ±0 74,424 38.3% -7.3%
UKIP Mark Reckless
David Rowlands		 2 +2 34,524 17.8% +12.5%
Conservative Mohammad Asghar 1 -1 33,318 17.2% -2.4%
Plaid Cymru Steffan Lewis 1 -1 29,686 15.3% +3.2%

South Wales West

Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West
Constituency Elected member Result
Aberavon David Rees Labour hold
Bridgend Carwyn Jones Labour hold
Gower Rebecca Evans Labour hold
Neath Jeremy Miles Labour hold
Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies Labour hold
Swansea East Mike Hedges Labour hold
Swansea West Julie James Labour hold
Welsh Assembly general election, 2016: South Wales West
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour 0 ±0 66,903 39.5% -6.9%
Plaid Cymru Bethan Jenkins
David Lloyd		 2 +1 29,050 17.2% +3.4
Conservative Suzy Davies 1 -1 25,414 15.0% -2.8%
UKIP Caroline Jones 1 +1 23,096 13.7% +9.4%
Liberal Democrat 0 -1 10,946 6.5% −0.5%

See also

References

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External links

  1. ↑ Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 5
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  13. ↑ 13.00 13.01 13.02 13.03 13.04 13.05 13.06 13.07 13.08 13.09 13.10 13.11 13.12 13.13 13.14 13.15 13.16 13.17 13.18 13.19 13.20 13.21 13.22 13.23 13.24 13.25 13.26 13.27 13.28 13.29 13.30 13.31 13.32 13.33 13.34 13.35 13.36 13.37 13.38 [1]
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  19. ↑ Seat estimates are based on constituency and regional poll.
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