Opinion polling for the Australian federal election, 2016

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See also: Mackerras pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016

Several research and polling firms are conducting polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election set for 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Every federal election after 1961 has been won by the party or coalition that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few seats in each other state are marginal.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).[1]

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

Two-party-preferred vote.
300px
Primary vote.
Graphs are a compilation of aggregate data from voting intention in the below list of all opinion polling for the 2016 federal election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

The table data below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the latest federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state (and swings since the previous election).

Two-party-preferred % polling aggregates by state
State (seats) L/NP 2PP ALP 2PP L/NP swing
New South Wales (47) 51.5 48.5 –2.8
Victoria (37) 46.4 53.6 –3.4
Queensland (30) 53.1 46.9 –3.9
Western Australia (16) 49.0 51.0 –9.3
South Australia (11) 50.6 49.4 –1.8
Tasmania (5) 48.8 51.2 0.0

Source: BludgerTrack 30/05/2016: Poll Bludger – Methodology

Individual seat election campaign polling

Date Seat TPP vote
L/NP ALP L/NP Swing
26 May 2016 Corangamite (Vic) [2] 54% 46% +0.1
19 May 2016 Macarthur (NSW) [3] 49% 51% –4.3
13 May 2016 Dunkley (Vic) [4] 48% 52% –7.6

National voting intention polling

Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
L/NP ALP Green Other L/NP ALP
26–29 May 2016 Essential[5] 41% 35% 9% 14% 51% 49%
21-22, 28-29 May 2016 Morgan[6] 37.5% 32.5% 13% 17% 49% 51%
26 May 2016 ReachTEL[7] 41.1% 36.5% 9.6% 12.8% 48% 52%
19–22 May 2016 Essential[8] 41% 37% 9% 12% 49% 51%
19–22 May 2016 Newspoll[9] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
19 May 2016 ReachTEL[10] 42.6% 36.6% 9.9% 10.9% 50% 50%
17–19 May 2016 Ipsos[11] 43% 34% 14% 9% 51% 49%
14–15 May 2016 Morgan[12] 36.5% 33% 15.5% 15% 47.5% 52.5%
12–15 May 2016 Essential[13] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
6–8 May 2016 Lonergan[14] 42% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
5–8 May 2016 Essential[15] 42% 38% 10% 10% 49% 51%
5–8 May 2016 Newspoll[16] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51%
5–7 May 2016 Ipsos[16] 44% 33% 14% 9% 51% 49%
4–6 May 2016 Galaxy[17] 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50%
5 May 2016 ReachTEL[18] 43.2% 35.1% 9.5% 12.2% 50% 50%
27 Apr – 1 May 2016 Essential[19] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
23–24, 30 Apr – 1 May 2016 Morgan[20] 40% 32.5% 13.5% 14% 49% 51%
20–24 Apr 2016 Essential[21] 40% 39% 10% 12% 48% 52%
14–17 Apr 2016 Newspoll[22] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
13–17 Apr 2016 Essential[23] 42% 36% 11% 11% 50% 50%
9–10, 16–17 Apr 2016 Morgan[24] 40.5% 32% 14% 13.5% 50% 50%
14–16 Apr 2016 Ipsos[25] 42% 33% 14% 11% 50% 50%
14 Apr 2016 ReachTEL[26] 43.5% 35.8% 9.8% 10.9% 50% 50%
6–10 Apr 2016 Essential[27] 42% 35% 11% 12% 50% 50%
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2016 Newspoll[28] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
26–27 Mar, 2–3 Apr 2016 Morgan[29] 42% 31% 13% 14% 52.5% 47.5%
21 Mar 2016 ReachTEL[30] 46.6% 34.4% 10.5% 8.6% 52% 48%
17–20 Mar 2016 Newspoll[31] 43% 34% 12% 11% 51% 49%
16–20 Mar 2016 Essential[32] 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50%
12–13, 19–20 Mar 2016 Morgan[33] 40% 33% 14% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
10–12 Mar 2016 Ipsos[34] 45% 31% 14% 10% 53% 47%
3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll[35] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
2–6 Mar 2016 Essential[36] 43% 37% 10% 10% 50% 50%
27–28 Feb, 5–6 Mar 2016 Morgan[37] 43% 29.5% 13% 14.5% 53% 47%
24–28 Feb 2016 Essential[38] 43% 38% 10% 9% 50% 50%
18–21 Feb 2016 Newspoll[39] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
17–21 Feb 2016 Essential[40] 44% 35% 10% 11% 52% 48%
13–14, 20–21 Feb 2016 Morgan[41] 43.5% 29.5% 15% 12% 52.5% 47.5%
11–13 Feb 2016 Ipsos[42] 44% 32% 15% 10% 52% 48%
11 Feb 2016 ReachTEL[43] 48.1% 32.8% 10.1% 9% 54% 46%
3–7 Feb 2016 Essential[44] 44% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
30–31 Jan, 6–7 Feb 2016 Morgan[45] 43.5% 29% 16% 11.5% 52.5% 47.5%
28–31 Jan 2016 Newspoll[46] 46% 34% 11% 9% 53% 47%
16–17, 23–24 Jan 2016 Morgan[47] 43.5% 28% 15% 13.5% 55% 45%
21 Jan 2016 ReachTEL[48] 48.5% 31.8% 10.8% 9.1% 55% 45%
15–18 Jan 2016 Essential[49] 44% 35% 10% 12% 51% 49%
2–3, 9–10 Jan 2016 Morgan[50] 47% 29% 13% 11% 56% 44%
15 Dec 2015 Essential[51] 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
5–6, 12–13 Dec 2015 Morgan[52] 48% 27% 14.5% 10.5% 57.5% 42.5%
8 Dec 2015 Essential[53] 44% 36% 11% 10% 51% 49%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll[54] 45% 33% 12% 10% 53% 47%
1 Dec 2015 Essential[55] 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015 Morgan[56] 46.5% 28.5% 14% 11% 56% 44%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL[57] 48.8% 31.1% 11.2% 8.9% 55% 45%
24 Nov 2015 Essential[58] 45% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll[59] 46% 33% 11% 10% 53% 47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015 Morgan[60] 46% 28% 14.5% 11.5% 56% 44%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos[61][note 1] 48% 29% 13% 10% 57% 43%
10 Nov 2015 Essential[62] 45% 35% 10% 11% 52% 48%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll[63] 46% 34% 10% 10% 53% 47%
3 Nov 2015 Essential 45% 34% 11% 10% 53% 47%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015 Morgan[64] 47% 28.5% 14.5% 10% 56.5% 43.5%
27 Oct 2015 Essential[65] 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll[66] 45% 35% 11% 9% 52% 48%
22 Oct 2015 ReachTEL[67] 46.7% 33.0% 11.3% 9.1% 53% 47%
20 Oct 2015 Essential[68] 44% 36% 11% 9% 51% 49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015 Morgan[69] 46.5% 27.5% 15.5% 10.5% 56% 44%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos[70] 45% 30% 14% 10% 54% 46%
13 Oct 2015 Essential[71] 44% 36% 10% 10% 51% 49%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll[72] 43% 35% 12% 10% 50% 50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015 Morgan[73] 47% 27.5% 14% 11.5% 56% 44%
1–4 Oct 2015 Essential[74] 44% 35% 10% 10% 52% 48%
24–28 Sep 2015 Essential 44% 35% 11% 11% 52% 48%
17–21 Sep 2015 Essential[75] 43% 37% 11% 9% 50% 50%
19–20 Sep 2015 Morgan[76] 46% 29.5% 13% 11.5% 55% 45%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll[77] 44% 35% 11% 10% 51% 49%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy[78] 44% 36% 11% 2% 51% 49%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL[79][note 2] 43.3% 35.9% 11.9% 8.9% 50% 50%
14 Sep 2015 Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015 Morgan[80] 35% 36.5% 16% 12.5% 43% 57%
5–6 Sep 2015 Morgan[81] 36.5% 35.5% 16.5% 11.5% 45% 55%
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll[82] 39% 39% 12% 10% 46% 54%
26–30 Aug 2015 Essential[83] 40% 38% 11% 12% 48% 52%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL[84] 40.3% 37.5% 13.4% 8.9% 47% 53%
22–23 Aug 2015 Morgan[85] 38.5% 36% 14% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll[86] 38% 39% 13% 10% 46% 54%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos[87] 38% 36% 16% 11% 44% 56%
11–14 Aug 2015 Essential 41% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
8–9 Aug 2015 Morgan[88] 36.5% 37% 15.5% 11% 43% 57%
8–9 Aug 2015 Newspoll[89] 39% 39% 13% 9% 46% 54%
4–7 Aug 2015 Essential 40% 39% 11% 9% 47% 53%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTel[90] 40.2% 38.3% 12.8% 8.7% 47% 53%
28–31 Jul 2015 Essential[91] 39% 38% 12% 10% 47% 53%
30 Jul 2015 ReachTel[92] 40.6% 38% 12.9% 8.6% 47% 53%
25–26 Jul 2015 Morgan[93] 39% 35.5% 15% 10.5% 46% 54%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll[94] 40% 39% 12% 9% 47% 53%
14–17 Jul 2015 Essential 41% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
11–12 Jul 2015 Morgan[95] 41.5% 34.5% 13.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
4–5 Jul 2015 Newspoll[96] 40% 37% 13% 10% 48% 52%
2–4 Jul 2015 Ipsos[97] 39% 35% 16% 10% 47% 53%
27–28 Jun 2015 Morgan[98] 39% 36% 14% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
16 Jun 2015 Newspoll[99] 40% 34% 14% 12% 49% 51%
16 Jun 2015 Essential 42% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
13–14 Jun 2015 Morgan[100] 37.5% 37.5% 13.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos[101] 40% 37% 14% 10% 47% 53%
11–13 Jun 2015 Essential 41% 40% 9% 10% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll[102] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
2 Jun 2015 Essential[103] 41% 37% 13% 9% 48% 52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015 Morgan[104] 41% 37% 13% 9% 47% 53%
26 May 2015 Essential[103] 41% 39% 10% 9% 48% 52%
18 May 2015 Morgan[105] 41.5% 35.5% 12.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[106] 43% 35% 13% 9% 50% 50%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[107] 40% 37% 12% 11% 47% 53%
13 May 2015 ReachTel[108] 41.1% 38.3% 12.1% 8.6% 47% 53%
7–10 May 2015 Essential[109] 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
6 May 2015 Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015 Newspoll[110] 39% 35% 12% 14% 48% 52%
4 May 2015 Morgan[111] 40% 37.5% 11.5% 11% 46.5% 53.5%
28 Apr 2015 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 11% 10% 48% 52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015 Morgan[112] 38.5% 38% 12% 11% 47% 53%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 41% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[113] 41% 36% 11% 12% 49% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[114] 39% 38% 13% 9% 46% 54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015 Morgan[115] 40.5% 36% 12.5% 11% 47% 53%
29 Mar 2015 ReachTEL[116] 39.6% 40.5% 11.5% 8.5% 46% 54%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[117] 41% 37% 11% 11% 49% 51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015 Morgan[118] 38% 40% 11% 11% 44% 56%
17 Mar 2015 Essential 40% 39% 9% 11% 48% 52%
10 Mar 2015 Essential[119] 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[120] 38% 39% 12% 11% 45% 55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015 Morgan[121] 39% 38% 12.5% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
20–22 Feb 2015 Essential 40% 41% 9% 10% 47% 53%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 38% 38% 12% 12% 47% 53%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 41% 12% 12% 43% 57%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015 Morgan 35% 41% 12% 12% 42.5% 57.5%
5 Feb 2015 ReachTEL 38.4% 41.4% 11.2% 8.9% 45% 55%
4–5 Feb 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 36% 43% 11% 10% 43% 57%
27 Jan 2015 ReachTEL 39.7% 40.2% 11.3% 8.8% 46% 54%
27 Jan 2015 Essential 39% 41% 9% 11% 46% 54%
20 Jan 2015 Essential 40% 40% 10% 11% 47% 53%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 38% 40% 10% 11% 46% 54%
12 Jan 2015 Morgan 38.5% 38.5% 9.5% 13.5% 45.5% 54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014 Morgan 37.5% 39.5% 12% 11% 43.5% 56.5%
16 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
12–15 Dec 2014 Newspoll 38% 39% 12% 11% 46% 54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014 Morgan 35% 41% 11.5% 12.5% 42.5% 57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 40% 37% 12% 11% 48% 52%
2–4 Dec 2014 Galaxy 38% 41% 11% 10% 45% 55%
2 Dec 2014 Essential 40% 40% 9% 11% 47% 53%
29–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 13% 13% 46% 54%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014 Morgan 37% 37.5% 12% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
25 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
21 Nov 2014 ReachTEL 40.2% 38.7% 11.1% 9.9% 47% 53%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 39% 11% 14% 45% 55%
17 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
17 Nov 2014 Morgan 38% 38.5% 12% 11.5% 44.5% 55.5%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 13% 48% 52%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 38% 36% 13% 13% 46% 54%
4 Nov 2014 Essential 40% 38% 10% 12% 48% 52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12.5% 11.5% 45.5% 54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 42% 37% 12% 10% 49% 51%
28 Oct 2014 Essential 39% 39% 9% 12% 47% 53%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL 40.1% 37.5% 11.5% 10.9% 48% 52%
21 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 47% 53%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
20 Oct 2014 Morgan 39.5% 35.5% 12% 13% 48% 52%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 41% 39% 10% 10% 48% 52%
7 Oct 2014 Essential 40% 39% 10% 11% 48% 52%
4–5 Oct 2014 Morgan 40% 35% 12% 13% 47% 53%
4–5 Oct 2014 Galaxy 42% 36% 12% 10% 49% 51%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 34% 11% 14% 49% 51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014 Morgan 38.5% 37.5% 12% 12% 45.5% 54.5%
18 Sep 2014 ReachTEL 41.6% 37.4% 10.5% 10.5% 49% 51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014 Morgan 38% 37% 10.5% 14.5% 46% 54%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 39% 35% 14% 12% 48% 52%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 11% 15% 49% 51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38.5% 10.5% 13.5% 44.5% 55.5%
19 Aug 2014 Essential 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
9–10 Aug 2014 Morgan 37.5% 38% 11% 13.5% 44% 56%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 40% 34% 13% 13% 48% 52%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 36% 12% 16% 46% 54%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 11% 16% 46% 54%
1 Jul 2014 Essential[122] 40% 38% 9% 13% 48% 52%
30 Jun 2014 Morgan[123] 35% 36.5% 12% 16.5% 42.5% 57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 37% 13% 15% 45% 55%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 36% 10% 17% 47% 53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 36% 37% 12% 15% 46% 54%
27 May 2014 Essential[124] 40% 39% 9% 12% 48% 52%
20 May 2014 Essential[125] 40% 40% 8% 12% 48% 52%
17–18 May 2014 Morgan[126] 35% 38.5% 12% 14.5% 42.5% 57.5%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 36% 38% 11% 15% 45% 55%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen[127] 35% 40% 14% 12% 44% 56%
4 May 2014 Galaxy[128] 39% 37% 11% 13% 48% 52%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll[129] 38% 34% 14% 14% 47% 53%
30 Apr 2014 Essential[124] 40% 38% 10% 11% 48% 52%
22 Apr 2014 Morgan[130] 38.5% 34% 13% 14.5% 48% 52%
15 Apr 2014 Essential[131] 42% 37% 10% 11% 50% 50%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen[132] 40% 34% 17% 9% 48% 52%
8 Apr 2014 Essential[133] 42% 38% 9% 11% 49% 51%
7 Apr 2014 Morgan[134] 38.5% 34.5% 12% 15% 48.5% 51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll[135] 43% 34% 11% 12% 51% 49%
25 Mar 2014 Morgan[136] 38% 38.5% 11% 12.5% 45.5% 54.5%
25 Mar 2014 Essential[137] 44% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll[138] 40% 36% 13% 11% 48% 52%
18 Mar 2014 Essential[139] 43% 36% 9% 12% 51% 49%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen[140] 44% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 41% 35% 11% 13% 49% 51%
5 Mar 2014 Essential[141] 44% 38% 8% 10% 51% 49%
23 Feb 2014 Morgan[142] 41% 35.5% 10.5% 13% 49.5% 50.5%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[143] 39% 39% 10% 12% 46% 54%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[144] 44% 33% 12% 11% 52% 48%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll[145] 41% 35% 12% 12% 49% 51%
28 Jan 2014 Morgan[146] 39.5% 37% 11.5% 12% 47% 53%
23 Jan 2014 ReachTEL 39.8% 40.6% 9.1% 9.1% 47% 53%
17–20 Jan 2014 Essential[147] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
13 Jan 2014 Morgan[148] 38% 39% 10.5% 12.5% 47.5% 52.5%
16 Dec 2013 Morgan[149] 40.5% 38.5% 10% 11% 47.5% 52.5%
15 Dec 2013 ReachTEL 41.4% 40.4% 8.7% 9.5% 48% 52%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 40% 38% 11% 11% 48% 52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013 Essential[150] 44% 36% 8% 11% 52% 48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013 Morgan (multi)[151] 41.5% 38.5% 8.5% 12.5% 48.5% 51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 43% 35% 10% 12% 52% 48%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[152] 41% 37% 11% 11% 48% 52%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 45% 32% 12% 11% 53% 47%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 31% 10% 12% 56% 44%
19–20 Oct 2013 Morgan[153] 43.5% 34.5% 10% 12% 51.5% 48.5%
13 Oct 2013 Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013 Morgan[154] 43.5% 34% 10.5% 12% 50.5% 49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013 Essential[155] 43% 37% 9% 11% 51% 49%
12–15 Sep 2013 Essential[155] 44% 36% 9% 11% 53% 47%
7 Sep 2013 2013 election 45.6% 33.4% 8.7% 12.3% 53.5% 46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013 Morgan (multi) 45% 31.5% 9.5% 14% 54.5% 44.5%
5 Sep 2013 ReachTEL[156] 43.5% 33.7% 10.2% 12.6% 53% 47%
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 46% 33% 9% 12% 54% 46%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction polling

Date Firm Preferred prime minister Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
Turnbull Shorten Turnbull Shorten
26 May 2016 ReachTEL[7] 54.9% 45.1%
19–22 May 2016 Newspoll[9] 46% 31% 38% 50% 37% 49%
19 May 2016 ReachTEL[10] 55.6% 44.4%
17–19 May 2016 Ipsos[11] 47% 30% 48% 38% 40% 46%
May 2016 Essential[13] 43% 28% 40% 42% 34% 43%
5–8 May 2016 Newspoll[16] 49% 27% 38% 49% 33% 52%
5–7 May 2016 Ipsos[16] 51% 29% 48% 40% 38% 49%
5 May 2016 ReachTEL[18] 57.7% 42.3%
4–5 May 2016 Morgan 57% 24% 43% 41% 34% 49%
14–17 Apr 2016 Newspoll[22] 47% 28% 36% 49% 31% 52%
14–16 Apr 2016 Ipsos[25] 54% 27% 51% 38% 33% 55%
14 Apr 2016 ReachTEL[26] 58.4% 41.6%
Apr 2016 Essential[27] 44% 22% 39% 39% 30% 44%
31 Mar–3 Apr 2016 Newspoll[28] 48% 27% 38% 48% 32% 53%
Mar 2016 Essential[27] 48% 19% 45% 35% 27% 47%
21 Mar 2016 ReachTEL[18] 60.0% 40.0%
10–12 Mar 2016 Ipsos[34] 61% 24% 55% 32% 33% 52%
3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll[35] 55% 21% 44% 41% 30% 55%
Feb 2016 Essential[44] 52% 15% 51% 27% 27% 48%
18–21 Feb 2016 Newspoll[39] 55% 21% 48% 38% 28% 57%
11–13 Feb 2016 Ipsos[42] 64% 19% 62% 24% 30% 55%
11 Feb 2016 ReachTEL[43] 74.9% 25.1%
Jan 2016 Essential[44] 51% 18% 51% 25% 27% 47%
28–31 Jan 2016 Newspoll[46] 59% 20% 53% 31% 25% 60%
Dec 2015 Essential[44] 54% 15% 56% 23% 27% 47%
4–6 Dec 2015 Newspoll[54] 60% 14% 52% 30% 23% 61%
Nov 2015 Essential[157] 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
26 Nov 2015 ReachTEL[57] 71.4% 28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015 Newspoll[59] 64% 15% 60% 22% 26% 57%
12–14 Nov 2015 Ipsos[61] 69% 18% 69% 16% 29% 57%
6–8 Nov 2015 Newspoll[63] 55% 14% 56% 20% 27% 47%
Oct 2015 Essential 48% 19% 47% 17% 30% 42%
23–25 Oct 2015 Newspoll[158] 63% 17% 58% 23% 26% 58%
20–22 Oct 2015 Morgan[159] 76% 14% 66% 18% 25% 62%
15–17 Oct 2015 Ipsos[70] 67% 21% 68% 17% 32% 56%
9–11 Oct 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 50% 25% 28% 53%
Sep 2015 Essential 53% 17% N/A N/A 29% 50%
17–20 Sep 2015 Newspoll 55% 21% 42% 24% 29% 54%
15–16 Sep 2015 Galaxy[78] 51% 20%
15 Sep 2015 ReachTEL[79] 61.9% 38.1%
15 Sep 2015 Morgan 70% 24%
Abbott Shorten Abbott Shorten
4–6 Sep 2015 Newspoll 37% 41% 30% 63% 30% 58%
27 Aug 2015 ReachTEL[84] 42.1% 57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015 Newspoll[86] 35% 40% 30% 63% 34% 52%
13–15 Aug 2015 Ipsos 39% 45% 35% 59% 39% 49%
11 Aug 2015 Essential 36% 32% 38% 53% 29% 52%
9 Aug 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 61% 29% 57%
6 Aug 2015 ReachTEL 41.5% 58.5%
31 Jul 2015 ReachTEL 44.9% 55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015 Newspoll[94] 39% 36% 33% 60% 27% 59%
7 Jul 2015 Essential 37% 30% 37% 53% 27% 52%
6 Jul 2015 Newspoll 39% 39% 33% 60% 28% 56%
11–13 Jun 2015 Newspoll[99] 41% 38% 34% 56% 28% 54%
11–13 Jun 2015 Ipsos[101] 41% 42%
2 Jun 2015 Essential 38% 33% 39% 50% 32% 45%
2 Jun 2015 Newspoll[102] 41% 37% 38% 53% 32% 50%
17 May 2015 Ipsos[106] 44% 39% 42% 50% 41% 45%
17 May 2015 Newspoll[107] 41% 40% 39% 52% 35% 46%
12 Apr 2015 Essential 35% 32% 36% 54% 32% 41%
5 Apr 2015 Newspoll[110] 38% 38% 37% 56% 34% 50%
27 Apr 2015 Morgan 44% 39% 37% 53% 34% 48%
14 Apr 2015 Essential 33% 35% 33% 58% 33% 42%
10–12 Apr 2015 Newspoll[113] 40% 41% 33% 59% 33% 51%
9–11 Apr 2015 Ipsos[114] 38% 46% 34% 60% 42% 44%
20–22 Mar 2015 Newspoll[117] 36% 41% 29% 61% 36% 47%
7–8 Mar 2015 Newspoll[120] 33% 44% 28% 63% 39% 42%
26–28 Feb 2015 Ipsos 39% 44% 32% 62% 43% 43%
20–22 Feb 2015 Newspoll 35% 43% 25% 68% 35% 49%
6–8 Feb 2015 Newspoll 30% 48% 24% 68% 42% 40%
1 Feb 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
28–30 Jan 2015 Galaxy 27% 44%
14 Jan 2015 Morgan 41% 43% 37% 52% 37% 40%
13 Jan 2015 Essential 35% 37% 37% 53% 39% 33%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 44% 33% 58% 37% 43%
4–6 Dec 2014 Ipsos 39% 47%
28–30 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 43% 33% 57% 39% 43%
18 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37% 43% 36% 55% 39% 41%
11 Nov 2014 Essential 36% 34% 39% 50% 37% 38%
4 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 37% 52% 37% 45%
30 Oct-1 Nov 2014 Ipsos 41% 41% 42% 49% 43% 40%
21 Oct 2014 Newspoll 39% 38% 38% 53% 35% 46%
14 Oct 2014 Essential 38% 32% 40% 48% 35% 36%
23 Sep 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 52% 38% 43%
5–7 Sep 2014 Newspoll 37% 37% 35% 54% 36% 43%
22–24 Aug 2014 Newspoll 39% 40% 36% 55% 40% 39%
8–10 Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 36% 54% 36% 44%
25–27 Jul 2014 Newspoll 38% 38% 36% 53% 38% 41%
11–13 Jul 2014 Newspoll 36% 41% 31% 60% 34% 43%
27–29 Jun 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 31% 62% 34% 41%
13–15 Jun 2014 Newspoll 37% 40% 30% 61% 34% 45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014 Newspoll 35% 45% 33% 59% 38% 43%
16–18 May 2014 Newspoll 34% 44% 30% 60% 42% 39%
15–17 May 2014 Nielsen 40% 51% 34% 62% 47% 39%
2–4 May 2014 Newspoll 40% 38% 35% 56% 35% 41%
13 Apr 2014 Nielsen 45% 44% 43% 50% 43% 41%
8 Apr 2014 Essential 42% 32% 41% 47% 34% 38%
4–6 Apr 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 47% 31% 42%
21–23 Mar 2014 Newspoll 43% 36% 40% 50% 36% 43%
13–15 Mar 2014 Nielsen 48% 43% 45% 49% 42% 42%
7–9 Mar 2014 Newspoll 42% 36% 38% 50% 33% 43%
21–23 Feb 2014 Newspoll[143] 38% 37% 36% 52% 35% 39%
15 Feb 2014 Nielsen[143] 49% 39% 45% 47% 40% 40%
7–9 Feb 2014 Newspoll 41% 33% 40% 45% 35% 35%
6–8 Dec 2013 Newspoll 41% 34% 40% 45% 44% 27%
22–24 Nov 2013 Newspoll 44% 33% 42% 42% 39% 27%
21–23 Nov 2013 Nielsen[152] 49% 41% 47% 46% 51% 30%
8–10 Nov 2013 Newspoll 46% 30% 45% 38% 37% 24%
25–27 Oct 2013 Newspoll 47% 28% 47% 34% 32% 24%
2013 election – – – – – –
3–5 Sep 2013 Newspoll 45% 44% 50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Notes

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References

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  1. ↑ Mackerras pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2016 based on 2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update): Antony Green ABC 13 March 2016 – O'Connor and Durack not included for Labor majority calculation but are included for Coalition loss of majority calculation.
  2. ↑ 7 News - Corangamite Poll: ReachTEL 26 May 2016
  3. ↑ 7 News - Macarthur Poll: ReachTEL 19 May 2016
  4. ↑ Libs struggling in Dunkley without Billson: The Australian 13 May 2016
  5. ↑ 31 May 2016 Essential
  6. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 26 May 2016 ReachTEL
  8. ↑ 24 May 2016 Essential
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 23 May 2016 Newspoll
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 [1]
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  12. ↑ http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6808-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-may-16-2016-201605160748
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 17 May 2016 Essential
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ 10 May 2016 Essential
  16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ [2]
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 18.2 [3]
  19. ↑ 3 May 2016 Essential
  20. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  21. ↑ 27 Apr 2016 Essential
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 18 Apr 2016 Newspoll
  23. ↑ 19 Apr 2016 Essential
  24. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 12 Apr 2016 Essential
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 4 Apr 2016 Newspoll
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ Mar 2016 ReachTEL
  31. ↑ 21 Mar 2016 Newspoll
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  34. ↑ 34.0 34.1 Mar 2016 Ipsos
  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 3–6 Mar 2016 Newspoll
  36. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  38. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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  44. ↑ 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  45. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  46. ↑ 46.0 46.1 Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition – The Poll Bludger 31 January 2016
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  51. ↑ [name=http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/essential_report_151215.pdf]
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  53. ↑ [4]
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  99. ↑ 99.0 99.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  100. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  101. ↑ 101.0 101.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  102. ↑ 102.0 102.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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