2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
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200px County Results
Garcia: 50–60% 60–70% Ducey: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% |
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The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The primary was held on August 28.[1] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey successfully won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot.
Contents
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Doug Ducey, incumbent Governor[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Ken Bennett, former Secretary of State of Arizona[3][4]
- Robert Weber (write-in)[5]
Endorsements
Doug Ducey |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey |
Ken Bennett |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 44% | 22% | 35% |
Results
Republican primary results[30] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 463,672 | 70.7 | |
Republican | Ken Bennett | 191,775 | 29.3 | |
Republican | Robert Weber (write-in) | 91 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 655,538 | 99.98 |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014[31][32]
Eliminated in primary
- Steve Farley, State Senator[33]
- Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist[34]
- Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)[5]
Declined
- Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for Governor in 2010 and 1990[35]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)[36]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)[37][38]
Endorsements
David Garcia |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve Farley |
Kelly Fryer |
David Garcia |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 589 | ± 4.0% | 25% | 7% | 40% | 28% |
Data Orbital | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 11% | 6% | 33% | 49% |
Emerson College | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 13% | 8% | 30% | 48% |
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia) | May 21–23, 2018 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 11% | 11% | 32% | 46% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 446 | – | 22% | – | 43% | 36% |
Results
Democratic primary results[30] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | David Garcia | 255,555 | 50.6 | |
Democratic | Steve Farley | 163,072 | 32.3 | |
Democratic | Kelly Fryer | 86,810 | 17.2 | |
Democratic | Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in) | 44 | 0.0 | |
Total votes | 505,481 | 100.0 |
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Disqualified
- Jeff Funicello, activist[51]
- Barry Hess (write-in)[5]
- Kevin McCormick,[5] candidate for President in 2016[52][53]
Endorsements
Kevin McCormick |
---|
|
Green primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Results
Green primary results[56] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Green | Angel Torres (write-in) | 357 | 76.3 | |
Green | Noah Dyer (write-in) | 111 | 23.7 | |
Total votes | 468 | 100.0 |
Independents
Candidates
Disqualified
- Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator[57][58]
- Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist[59]
Declined
- Tim Jeffries, former Director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security[60]
General election
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 24, 2018
- Complete video of debate, September 25, 2018
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[61] | Likely R | October 5, 2018 |
The Washington Post[62] | Likely R | October 16, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[63] | Likely R | October 17, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[64] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] | Likely R | October 11, 2018 |
Real Clear Politics[66] | Likely R | October 11, 2018 |
Daily Kos[67] | Likely R | October 5, 2018 |
Fox News[68][lower-alpha 1] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Politico[69] | Likely R | October 12, 2018 |
Governing[70] | Lean R | October 2, 2018 |
- Notes
- ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
David Garcia (D) |
Angel Torres (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 55% | 37% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 54% | 39% | – | 2% | 5% |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 56% | 37% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 36% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | – | – | – |
Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 54% | 46% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 57% | 35% | – | – | – |
Fox News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 2% | 5% |
710 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% |
867 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 43% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
HighGround Public Affairs | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 55% | 35% | 4% | – | 7% |
Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 54% | 40% | 5% | <1% | 2% |
55% | 42% | – | 1% | 1% | ||||
793 RV | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 5% | <1% | 3% | ||
55% | 41% | – | 1% | 3% | ||||
YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 41% | – | 1% | 5% |
Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 37% | – | 2% | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 39% | 1% | – | 3% |
Change Research (D-Garcia) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 11% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 37% | 2% | – | 7% |
Data Orbital | October 1–3, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 52% | 34% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 55% | 37% | – | 1% | 7% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 54% | 35% | – | 2% | 9% | ||
Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 43% | – | – | – |
Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 38% | 2% | 0% | 10% |
Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 45% | 40% | – | – | 15% |
610 RV | – | 41% | 37% | – | – | 19% | ||
Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 38% | – | 6% | 14% |
Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 49% | 39% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
51% | 43% | – | <1% | 5% | ||||
763 RV | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
51% | 42% | – | 1% | 6% | ||||
CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 2% |
854 RV | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 4% | ||
Ipsos | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 7% |
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% |
Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 51% | 40% | – | 1% | 8% |
801 RV | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | – | 1% | 10% | ||
Gravis Marketing | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 44% | – | – | 9% |
Data Orbital | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 41% | – | 2%[71] | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | August 30–31, 2018 | 554 | ± 4.2% | 44% | 43% | – | – | 13% |
Gravis Marketing | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | – | – | 17% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | January 5–7, 2018 | 735 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | – | – | 15% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia) | June 7–8, 2017 | 1,020 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 44% | – | – | 14% |
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey (incumbent) | 1,330,863 | 56.00% | +2.56% | |
Democratic | David Garcia | 994,341 | 41.84% | +0.22% | |
Green | Angel Torres | 50,962 | 2.14% | N/A | |
None | Patrick Masoya (write-in) | 177 | 0.01% | N/A | |
None | Christian Komor (write-in) | 66 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Green | Cary D. Dolego (write-in) | 13 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Republican Takeover | Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (write-in) | 12 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Humanitarian | James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (write-in) | 7 | 0.00% | N/A | |
Total votes | 2,376,441 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
References
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- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/elections/2018-primary-election/state/1348/3/0
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- ↑ 30.0 30.1 [1]
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- ↑ https://www.sierraclub.org/sites/www.sierraclub.org/files/sce/grand-canyon-chapter/election/2018%20General%20Election%20Voter%20Guide.pdf
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- ↑ 55.0 55.1 Candidate Search
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- ↑ Barry Hess (L) with 2%
- ↑ https://azsos.gov/sites/default/files/2018%201203%20Signed%20Official%20Statewide%20Canvass.pdf
External links
- Official campaign websites