2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina is one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, incumbent Thom Tillis and former State Senator Cal Cunningham won their respective parties' primaries.[1]
Contents
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
- Larry Holmquist, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
- Sharon Hudson, activist[3]
- Paul Wright, former North Carolina Superior Court judge, perennial candidate, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[3]
Withdrawn
- Sandy Smith, farm owner[4] (running for U.S. House in NC-01)
- Garland Tucker, former CEO and chairman of Triangle Capital[5]
Declined
- Mark Meadows, former U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district[6]
- Ted Budd, incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 13th congressional district[7]
- Mark Walker, incumbent U.S. Representative for North Carolina's 6th congressional district[8]
Endorsements
Thom Tillis |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Sandy Smith |
Thom Tillis |
Garland Tucker |
Mark Walker |
Paul Wright |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 247 (LV) | – | – | 69% | – | – | 8% | 8%[lower-alpha 2] | 16% |
444 (RV) | – | – | 58% | – | – | 7% | 10%[lower-alpha 3] | 26% | ||
Meredith College | February 16–24, 2020 | 353 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 53% | – | – | 5% | 6%[lower-alpha 4] | 36% |
SurveyUSA | February 13–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 59% | – | – | 3% | 8%[lower-alpha 5] | 29% |
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | – | 62% | – | – | 7% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] | 27% |
400 (RV) | – | – | 52% | – | – | 6% | 5%[lower-alpha 7] | 38% | ||
Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
Walker announces he will not run[12] | ||||||||||
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 11%[lower-alpha 8] | 63% | – | – | – | – | 25% |
Tucker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
FOX News | November 10–13, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 54% | 11% | – | – | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | August 19–20, 2019 | 564 (V) | – | –[lower-alpha 10] | 38% | 31% | – | – | – | 31% |
Diversified Research (R)[1][upper-alpha 1] | July 8–9, 2019 | 500 (V) | – | – | 40% | 30% | – | – | – | 30% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[upper-alpha 2] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2%[lower-alpha 11] | 40% | 11% | 17% | – | – | 30% |
2%[lower-alpha 12] | 18% | 8% | 56% | – | – | 16% | ||||
Tucker announces his candidacy[13] | ||||||||||
Diversified Research (R)[2][upper-alpha 3] | Months before May, 2019 | –[lower-alpha 13] | – | – | 63% | 7% | – | – | – | 30% |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
Republican primary results[1] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 608,943 | 78.08% | |
Republican | Paul Wright | 58,908 | 7.55% | |
Republican | Larry Holmquist | 57,356 | 7.35% | |
Republican | Sharon Y. Hudson | 54,651 | 7.01% | |
Total votes | 779,858 | 100.00% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Cal Cunningham, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[14]
Eliminated in primary
- Trevor Fuller, Mecklenburg County commissioner[15]
- Atul Goel, physician and retired United States Air Force officer[16]
- Erica D. Smith, state senator[17]
- Steve Swenson[16]
Withdrawn
- Katherine Bell-Moore[18]
- Eva F. Lee, attorney[19] (running for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor)[20]
- Eric L. Mansfield, former state senator[21]
- Steve Williams[18]
Declined
- Janet Cowell, former North Carolina State Treasurer[22] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Anthony Foxx, former U.S. Secretary of Transportation and former mayor of Charlotte[22] (endorsed Cunningham)
- Rachel Hunt, state representative[22]
- Vi Lyles, mayor of Charlotte[23]
- Dan McCready, former U.S. Marine, businessman, and nominee for North Carolina's 9th congressional district in 2018 and 2019 special election[22]
- Deborah K. Ross, former state representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016[24](running for North Carolina's 2nd congressional district)
- Thomas W. Ross, former president of the University of North Carolina system[25]
- Josh Stein, North Carolina Attorney General[26] (running for reelection)
- Brian Turner, state representative[22]
Endorsements
Cal Cunningham |
---|
|
Erica D. Smith |
---|
|
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Cal Cunningham |
Trevor Fuller |
Atul Goel |
Erica Smith |
Steve Swenson |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 50% | 4% | 1% | 24% | 3% | 18% |
474 (RV) | – | 42% | 5% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 4% | ||
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies | February 26–27, 2020 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 28% |
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 25% |
Public Policy Polling | February 23–24, 2020 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 30% |
Meredith College | February 16–24, 2020 | 429 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 36% |
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies | February 21–23, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 29% |
SurveyUSA | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 3% | 34% |
High Point University | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 224 (LV) | – | 37% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 44% |
397 (RV) | – | 29% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 50% | ||
Public Policy Polling | February 4–5, 2020 | 604 (LV) | – | 29% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 52% |
Public Policy Polling | January 10–12, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 22% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 60% |
FOX News | November 10–13, 2019 | 669 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 10% | – | 18% | – | 49% |
Results
Democratic primary results[1] | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 717,941 | 56.93% | |
Democratic | Erica D. Smith | 438,969 | 34.81% | |
Democratic | Trevor M. Fuller | 48,168 | 3.82% | |
Democratic | Steve Swenson | 33,741 | 2.68% | |
Democratic | Atul Goel | 22,226 | 1.76% | |
Total votes | 1,261,045 | 100.00% |
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Shannon Bray, U.S. Navy veteran, author, and candidate for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in 2019[45]
Constitution Party
Nominee
- Kevin E. Hayes, candidate for the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2012 and 2018[46]
Independence Party
Withdrawn
Independent write-in candidates
Withdrawn
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[50] | Tossup | August 17, 2020 |
Inside Elections[51] | Tossup | September 18, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Tossup | August 5, 2020 |
Daily Kos[53] | Tossup | August 31, 2020 |
Politico[54] | Tossup | September 9, 2020 |
RCP[55] | Tossup | September 17, 2020 |
Niskanen[56] | Likely D (flip) | September 15, 2020 |
DDHQ[57] | Lean D (flip) | September 16, 2020 |
538[58] | Lean D (flip) | September 18, 2020 |
Endorsements
Thom Tillis (R) |
---|
|
Fundraising
In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million.[95]
Polling
Graphical summary
<templatestyles src="Graph:Chart/styles.css"></templatestyles>
Aggregate polls
Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cal Cunningham | Thom Tillis | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 21] | Margin |
270 to Win | September 15, 2020 - September 19, 2020 | September 19, 2020 | 44.2% | 39.2% | 10% | Cunningham +5.0% |
Real Clear Politics | August 29. 2020 – September 13, 2020 | September 13, 2020 | 46.1% | 42.5% | 10% | Cunningham +3.6% |
Tillis vs. Cunningham
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 1] |
Margin of error |
Thom Tillis (R) |
Cal Cunningham (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/CNBC | September 18–20, 2020 | 579 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9%[lower-alpha 22] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 38% | 44% | 18%[lower-alpha 23] |
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,604 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 38% | 47% | – |
Emerson College | September 16–18, 2020 | 717 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 49% | 8%[lower-alpha 24] |
Ipsos/Reuters | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 9%[lower-alpha 25] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 37% | 42% | 21%[lower-alpha 26] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 38% | 49% | 13%[lower-alpha 27] |
Suffolk University | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 42% | 21%[lower-alpha 28] |
SurveyUSA | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 47% | 13%[lower-alpha 29] |
CNN/SSRS | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 7%[lower-alpha 30] |
893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 46% | 10%[lower-alpha 31] | ||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | 22%[lower-alpha 32] |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9%[lower-alpha 33] |
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | September 7–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 10%[lower-alpha 34] |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[upper-alpha 4] | August 8 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Change Research/CNBC | September 4–6, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | 5%[lower-alpha 35] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 47% | 16%[lower-alpha 36] |
Monmouth University | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 9%[lower-alpha 37] |
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 38] | 45% | 47% | 8%[lower-alpha 39] | |||
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 40] | 46% | 46% | 8%[lower-alpha 41] | |||
FOX News | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 722 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 11%[lower-alpha 42] |
804 (RV) | 40% | 47% | 13%[lower-alpha 43] | |||
East Carolina University | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 12%[lower-alpha 44] |
Change Research/CNBC | August 21–23, 2020 | 560 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | 6%[lower-alpha 45] |
Morning Consult | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,541 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 47% | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 16–18, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | 16%[lower-alpha 46] |
East Carolina University | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 44% | 16%[lower-alpha 47] |
Emerson College | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | 14%[lower-alpha 48] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 20%[lower-alpha 49] |
Change Research/CNBC | August 7–9, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 10%[lower-alpha 50] |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 5] | July 30–31, 2020 | 934 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8%[lower-alpha 51] |
Data for Progress | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,170 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 49% | 10%[lower-alpha 52] |
CBS News/YouGov | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,152 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 48% | 12%[lower-alpha 53] |
HIT Strategies (D)[upper-alpha 6] | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 32% | 48% | 21%[lower-alpha 54] |
Change Research/CNBC | July 24–26, 2020 | 284 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Morning Consult | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 14%[lower-alpha 55] |
Public Policy Polling | July 22–23, 2020 | 939 (V) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | 13%[lower-alpha 56] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 36% | 47% | 16%[lower-alpha 57] |
Marist College/NBC News | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | 10%[lower-alpha 58] |
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 7] | July 11–16, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | 20%[lower-alpha 59] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 9%[lower-alpha 60] |
Change Research/CNBC | July 10–12, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 49% | 9%[lower-alpha 61] |
Public Policy Polling | July 7–8, 2020 | 818 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 47% | 15%[lower-alpha 62] |
Change Research/CNBC | June 26–28, 2020 | 468 (LV)[lower-alpha 63] | ± 3.9% | 41% | 51% | 8%[lower-alpha 64] |
East Carolina University | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | 18%[lower-alpha 65] |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 44% | 16%[lower-alpha 66] |
FOX News | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 39% | 23%[lower-alpha 67] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | 19%[lower-alpha 68] |
Gravis Marketing (R)[upper-alpha 8] | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 45% | 19%[lower-alpha 69] |
Public Policy Polling | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 (V) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 16%[lower-alpha 70] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | 26%[lower-alpha 71] |
Meeting Street Insights (R) | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 46% | 8%[lower-alpha 72] |
East Carolina University | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | 19%[lower-alpha 73] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | 9%[lower-alpha 74] |
Meredith College | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | 22% |
SurveyUSA | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 41% | 20%[lower-alpha 75] |
Public Policy Polling | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | 28% |
East Carolina University | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
NBC News/Marist | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,120 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 9] | February 25–26, 2020 [lower-alpha 76] | 911 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 10] | January 11–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
ALG Research (D)[upper-alpha 11] | January 8–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | 13% |
Meredith College | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 33% | 32% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 11] | September 16–17, 2019 | 628 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Fabrizio Ward/AARP | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling[upper-alpha 12] | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Hypothetical polling
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Results
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | {{{change}}} | |||
Democratic | Cal Cunningham | ||||
Libertarian | Shannon Bray | {{{change}}} | |||
Constitution | Kevin E. Hayes | {{{change}}} | |||
Total votes | 100.00% |
See also
Notes
- Partisan clients
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- Voter samples and additional candidates
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References
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External links
- Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
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- Official campaign websites
- Shannon Bray (L) for Senate
- Cal Cunningham (D) for Senate
- Thom Tillis (R) for Senate
- Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found. (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
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- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ https://secure.winred.com/thom-tillis/nikki-haley-for-tillis
- ↑ 60.0 60.1 https://justfacts.votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/57717/thom-tillis
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ 65.0 65.1 65.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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