2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

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For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.

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2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
  x200px x200px
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,742,408 1,558,663
Percentage 52.22% 46.71%
250px
250px
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

 Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024. On November 7, 2024, Donald Trump was declared the apparent winner by many major forecasters such as Decision Desk HQ.[2] Arizona was officially called for Trump by The Associated Press on November 9.[3]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee.[4] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[5]

The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump.[6] Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state is now considered a purple state.[7][8] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn.[9][10]

Donald Trump won Arizona by 5.5%, which represented the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in his sweep of the seven swing states and proved to be much less competitive than expected. Trump received more than 1.74 million votes, which sets a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[11]Template:2024AZDem

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.[11]Template:2024AZRep

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".[12][13]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona.[14]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[17] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[18] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[19] Tilt R (flip) November 4, 2024
The Economist[20] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
538[21] Lean R (flip) November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[22] Tossup November 3, 2024
NBC News[23] Tossup November 4, 2024

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered.[24] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.[25]

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270ToWin October 22 – November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.8% 48.4% 4.8% Trump +1.6%
538 through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.8% 48.9% 4.3% Trump +2.1%
Silver Bulletin through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 46.9% 49.3% 3.8% Trump +2.4%
The Hill/DDHQ through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.3% 49.9% 2.8% Trump +2.6%
Average 47.0% 49.1% 3.9% Trump +2.1%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[26] November 3–4, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 52% 1%
Victory Insights[27] November 2–3, 2024 750 (LV) – 48% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 3]
Trafalgar Group (R)[28] November 1–3, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 4]
Patriot Polling[29] November 1–3, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 51% 1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[30] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 3]
AtlasIntel[31] November 1–2, 2024 967 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 52% 2%
Emerson College[32] October 30 – November 2, 2024 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 5]
48%[lower-alpha 6] 51% 1%[lower-alpha 5]
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,025 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 8%
1,025 (LV) 45% 49% 6%
ActiVote[34] October 8 – November 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
SoCal Strategies (R)[35][upper-alpha 1] October 30–31, 2024 750 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 50% 1%
AtlasIntel[36] October 30–31, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[37] October 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) – 47% 50% 3%
YouGov[38][upper-alpha 2] October 25–31, 2024 880 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 50% 1%
856 (LV) 49% 50% 1%
Morning Consult[39] October 21−30, 2024 666 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[40][upper-alpha 3] October 25–29, 2024 803 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 3]
AtlasIntel[41] October 25–29, 2024 1,458 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[42] October 28, 2024 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% 2%
RABA Research[43] October 25–27, 2024 589 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%[lower-alpha 7]
Trafalgar Group (R)[44] October 24–26, 2024 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 3]
CES/YouGov[45] October 1–25, 2024 2,077 (A) – 49% 49% 2%
2,066 (LV) 47% 51% 2%
Marist College[46] October 17–22, 2024 1,329 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% 2%[lower-alpha 8]
1,193 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 50% 1%[lower-alpha 8]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[47] October 20–21, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 4]
HighGround[48] October 19–20, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 47% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[49] October 16–20, 2024 915 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
861 (LV) 49% 49% 2%
University of Arizona/Truedot[50] October 12–20, 2024 846 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 45% 9%[lower-alpha 9]
AtlasIntel[51] October 12–17, 2024 1,440 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% 2%
CBS News/YouGov[52] October 11−16, 2024 1,435 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 51% 1%
Morning Consult[39] October 6−15, 2024 653 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post/Schar School[53] September 30 – October 15, 2024 580 (RV) ± 5.0% 44% 50% 6%
580 (LV) 46% 49% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[54] October 10–13, 2024 1,090 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 48% 6%[lower-alpha 10]
New York Times/Siena College[55] October 7–10, 2024 808 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 4%
808 (LV) 46% 51% 3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[56][upper-alpha 4] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 49% 5%
Emerson College[57] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 5]
48%[lower-alpha 6] 51% 1%[lower-alpha 5]
Wall Street Journal[58] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 48% 46% 6%
ActiVote[59] September 6 – October 8, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
SoCal Strategies (R)[60][upper-alpha 1] October 5–7, 2024 735 (LV) – 49% 48% 3%
RMG Research[61][upper-alpha 5] September 30 – October 2, 2024 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50% 4%[lower-alpha 11]
46% 50% 4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[62][upper-alpha 6] September 24 – October 2, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 47% 8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[63][upper-alpha 7] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 4]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[64] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 1%[lower-alpha 4]
HighGround[65][upper-alpha 8] September 26–29, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% 6%
National Research[66][upper-alpha 9] September 25–29, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 47% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[67][upper-alpha 10] September 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College[68][upper-alpha 11] September 27–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 50% 3%[lower-alpha 5]
48%[lower-alpha 6] 52% –
AtlasIntel[69] September 20–25, 2024 946 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[70] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 50% 48% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] September 19–25, 2024 977 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%
926 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Fox News[72] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
764 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 51% 1%
Marist College[73] September 19−24, 2024 1,416 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 8]
1,264 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 50% 1%[lower-alpha 8]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[74][upper-alpha 3] September 19–22, 2024 1,030 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
New York Times/Siena College[75] September 17–21, 2024 713 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 49% 6%
713 (LV) 45% 50% 5%
Emerson College[76] September 15–18, 2024 868 (LV) ± 3.3% 48% 49% 3%[lower-alpha 12]
49%[lower-alpha 6] 50% 1%[lower-alpha 12]
Morning Consult[39] September 9−18, 2024 862 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[77] September 11–12, 2024 1,088 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 47% 7%[lower-alpha 10]
Data Orbital[78][upper-alpha 12] September 7–9, 2024 550 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 46% 8%
Morning Consult[39] August 30 – September 8, 2024 901 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
TIPP Insights[79][upper-alpha 13] September 3–5, 2024 1,015 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 46% 8%
949 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
Patriot Polling[80] September 1–3, 2024 804 (RV) – 47% 49% 4%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[81] August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
University of Arizona/Truedot[82] August 28–31, 2024 1,155 (RV) – 42% 46% 12%[lower-alpha 13]
Emerson College[83] August 25–28, 2024 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 50% 7%
48%[lower-alpha 6] 51% 1%[lower-alpha 5]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] August 23–26, 2024 776 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Fox News[85] August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%
Spry Strategies (R)[86][upper-alpha 14] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[87][upper-alpha 15] August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Noble Predictive Insights[88] August 12–16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Focaldata[89] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% –
Strategies 360[90] August 7–14, 2024 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 47% 46% 7%
New York Times/Siena College[91] August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 7%
677 (LV) 50% 45% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[92] August 6–8, 2024 1,092 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 5%
Navigator Research (D)[93] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[94] July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 48% 46% 6%
HighGround[95] July 30 – August 5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 42% 14%[lower-alpha 14]
Public Policy Polling (D)[96][upper-alpha 16] July 29–30, 2024 618 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 49% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[97][upper-alpha 17] July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[98] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College[99] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 49% 7%
47%[lower-alpha 6] 53% –
July 21, 2024 Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R)[100] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 52% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 51% 7%
Emerson College[103] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 48% 12%
New York Times/Siena College[104] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
603 (LV) 43% 48% 9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		 Others/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 15]		 Margin
Race to the WH through October 10, 2024 October 15, 2024 46.4% 48.8% 1.0% N/A 0.8% 3.0% Trump +2.4%
270toWin October 2 – 12, 2024 October 12, 2024 47.4% 47.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.5% Trump +0.2%
Average 46.9% 48.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.2% Trump +1.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		 Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[26] November 3–4, 2024 875 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 0% 2%
AtlasIntel[31] November 1–2, 2024 967 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 52% – 1% 1% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[33] October 25 – November 2, 2024 1,025 (RV) ± 3.5% 42% 47% – 3% 2% 6%
1,025 (LV) 44% 48% – 2% 1% 5%
Focaldata[105] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,779 (LV) – 48% 49% – 1% 1% 1%
1,603 (RV) ± 2.3% 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%
1,779 (A) – 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%
AtlasIntel[36] October 30–31, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 1% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[106] October 28–31, 2024 652 (LV) – 47% 48% – 1% 1% 3%
YouGov[38][upper-alpha 2] October 25–31, 2024 880 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 48% 0% 1% – 4%
856 (LV) 48% 48% 0% 0% – 4%
Noble Predictive Insights[107] October 28–30, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% – 2% 0% 3%
Data for Progress (D)[108] October 25–30, 2024 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% – 1% 0% 4%
AtlasIntel[41] October 25–29, 2024 1,458 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% – 1% 0% 2%
Mitchell Research & Communications[42] October 28, 2024 610 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 50% – 0% 1% 1%
Data Orbital[109] October 26–28, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 50% – 1% 1% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[110] October 25–27, 2024 901 (LV) – 47% 49% – 1% 1% 2%
J.L. Partners[111] October 24–26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 49% – 0% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 3]
CNN/SSRS[112] October 21–26, 2024 781 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% – 1% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[113] October 20–22, 2024 710 (LV) – 46% 48% – 1% 1% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[49] October 16–20, 2024 915 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
861 (LV) 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] October 16–18, 2024 691 (LV) – 46% 49% – 1% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[51] October 12–17, 2024 1,440 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 49% – 1% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[115] October 12–14, 2024 1,141 (LV) – 46% 48% – 1% 1% 4%
New York Times/Siena College[55] October 7–10, 2024 808 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 2% 1% 4%
808 (LV) 45% 50% – 1% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116] September 27 – October 2, 2024 555 (LV) – 47% 48% – 1% 1% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[63][upper-alpha 18] September 24 – October 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 49% – 1% 0% 3%
AtlasIntel[69] September 20–25, 2024 946 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% – 0% – 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[70] September 19–25, 2024 409 (LV) – 50% 47% – 1% – 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[71] September 19–25, 2024 977 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% – 1% 2% 2%
926 (LV) 49% 46% – 1% 2% 2%
Fox News[72] September 20−24, 2024 1,021 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 1% 1% 2% −
764 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% 0% 1% 2% −
Suffolk University/USA Today[117] September 19−24, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% – 1% 1% 8%
New York Times/Siena College[75] September 17–21, 2024 713 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 47% – 2% 3% 6%
713 (LV) 43% 48% – 2% 2% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] September 16–19, 2024 789 (LV) – 47% 47% – 1% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[119] September 6–9, 2024 765 (LV) – 46% 47% – 1% 1% 5%
TIPP Insights[79][upper-alpha 13] September 3–5, 2024 1,015 (RV) ± 3.2% 46% 46% 1% 1% – 6%
949 (LV) 48% 48% 1% 1% – 2%
YouGov[120][upper-alpha 2] August 23 – September 3, 2024 900 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 47% 1% 1% – 6%[lower-alpha 3]
CNN/SSRS[121] August 23–29, 2024 682 (LV) ± 4.7% 44% 49% – 2% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] August 25–28, 2024 530 (LV) – 45% 46% – 1% 1% 7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[84] August 23–26, 2024 776 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% – 0% 2% 2%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% – 0% 2% 2%
Fox News[85] August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 1% 1% 2% 1%


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Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		 Other /
Undecided
Wall Street Journal[58] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 0% 0% 1% 1% 6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[67][upper-alpha 10] September 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Spry Strategies (R)[86] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 2% – 1% – 5%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[87][upper-alpha 15] August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) – 44% 45% 7% 1% 0% – 3%
Focaldata[89] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% 7% – 0% 0% 2%
702 (RV) 45% 45% 9% – 0% 0% 1%
702 (A) 42% 46% 9% – 0% 0% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 43% 44% 5% – 1% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[91] August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 6% 0% 1% 2% 4%
677 (LV) 47% 43% 5% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Navigator Research (D)[93] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 5% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[94] July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 46% 42% 7% 1% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] July 31 – August 3, 2024 567 (LV) – 44% 43% 4% – 0% 0% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[98] July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 5% – 0% 2% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] July 22–24, 2024 510 (LV) – 43% 46% 4% – 0% 1% 6%
Emerson College[99] July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 48% 5% 1% 1% 1% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D)[126][upper-alpha 19] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 46% 7% 1% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Peak Insights (R)[127][upper-alpha 20] July 31 – August 5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 11% 3%
Iron Light Intelligence (R)[128][upper-alpha 21] July 29 – August 5, 2024 600 (LV) – 43% 43% 7% 7%

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Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

800px Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[126][upper-alpha 19] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 44% 50% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[100] July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 7%
Emerson College[129][upper-alpha 22] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[130][upper-alpha 23] July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 51% 6%
Echelon Insights[131][upper-alpha 24] July 1–8, 2024 601 (LV) ± 5.0% 44% 48% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132] July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College[133][upper-alpha 22] June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Remington Research Group (R)[134] June 29 – July 1, 2024 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[135][upper-alpha 13] June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College[136] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
48%[lower-alpha 6] 52% –
Rasmussen Reports (R)[137] June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
Fox News[138] June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[139][upper-alpha 25] May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[140] May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
501 (LV) 45% 43% 12%
CBS News/YouGov[141] May 10–16, 2024 1,214 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% 1%
Prime Group[142][upper-alpha 26] May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 49% 51% –
Noble Predictive Insights[143] May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 44% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[144] May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
New York Times/Siena College[145] April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
626 (LV) 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College[146] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
48%[lower-alpha 6] 52% –
Kaplan Strategies[147] April 20–21, 2024 874 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 10%
John Zogby Strategies[148][upper-alpha 27] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 40% 51% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[149] April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 49% 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[150][upper-alpha 4] April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 48% 8%
The Bullfinch Group[151][upper-alpha 28] March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 18%[lower-alpha 16]
RABA Research[152] March 28–31, 2024 503 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 39% 25%[lower-alpha 17]
Wall Street Journal[153] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% 11%
Echelon Insights[154][upper-alpha 29] March 12–19, 2024 401 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 51% 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[155][upper-alpha 21] March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[156] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
48%[lower-alpha 6] 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Fox News[158] March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[159] February 21–26, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[160] February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College[103] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
J.L. Partners[161] January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%
Focaldata[162] January 17–23, 2024 783 (A) – 39% 43% 18%[lower-alpha 18]
– (LV) 41% 45% 14%[lower-alpha 19]
– (LV) 50%[lower-alpha 6] 50% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[163] January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
The Bullfinch Group[164] December 14–18, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 50% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[165][upper-alpha 30] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 41% 46% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[166] November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
J.L. Partners[167][upper-alpha 31] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
Tulchin Research (D)[168][upper-alpha 32] November 13–20, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 42% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[169] October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[170] October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 43% 16%
New York Times/Siena College[104] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% 7%
603 (LV) 44% 49% 7%
Noble Predictive Insights[171] October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 46% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[172] October 5–10, 2023 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[173] October 7–9, 2023 627 (RV) – 39% 44% 16%
Emerson College[174] August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 45% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[175][upper-alpha 33] July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 8%
Prime Group[176][upper-alpha 26] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 48% 52% –
31% 41% 28%[lower-alpha 20]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[177][upper-alpha 33] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[178][upper-alpha 33] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[179][upper-alpha 33] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[180][upper-alpha 34] March 13–14, 2023 1,001 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 50% 11%
OH Predictive Insights[181] January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 37% 24%
Blueprint Polling (D)[182] January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 35% 38% 27%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[183] November 8–9, 2022 874 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% 8%
Targoz Market Research[184] November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 53% 2%
Emerson College[185] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College[186] September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 44% 15%
Echelon Insights[187][upper-alpha 24] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Blueprint Polling (D)[188] May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[189][upper-alpha 4] November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 51% 6%
Bendixen/Amandi International[190] June 17–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D)[126][upper-alpha 19] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 45% 7% – 2% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[191] July 16–18, 2024 456 (LV) – 40% 44% 7% – 1% 8%[lower-alpha 21]
Emerson College[129][upper-alpha 22] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 46% 6% 1% 1% 10%[lower-alpha 21]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[130][upper-alpha 23] July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% 9% 1% 1% 6%
YouGov[192][upper-alpha 2] July 4–12, 2024 900 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 44% 5% 1% 2% 11%
J.L. Partners[193] July 10–11, 2024 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% 4% – 2% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[194] July 8–10, 2024 419 (LV) – 39% 43% 7% – 1% 10%[lower-alpha 22]
Echelon Insights[131][upper-alpha 24] July 1–8, 2024 601 (LV) ± 5.0% 39% 41% 11% 1% 0% 8%[lower-alpha 21]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132] July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 45% 9% 1% 0% 7%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[135][upper-alpha 13] June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 42% 13% – 3% 10%[lower-alpha 23]
Emerson College[136] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 8% 1% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[137] June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[195] June 8–11, 2024 430 (LV) – 38% 40% 6% – 1% 15%[lower-alpha 22]
Fox News[138] June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% 8% 1% 1% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[139][upper-alpha 35] May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 45% 11% 0% 3% 4%
Prime Group[142][upper-alpha 26] May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 40% 44% 11% 3% 2% –
Noble Predictive Insights[143] May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 43% 8% 1% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 7% 1% 2% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[144] May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
New York Times/Siena College[145] April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 33% 42% 10% 0% 2% 13%
626 (LV) 35% 44% 8% 0% 2% 11%
Emerson College[146] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 9% 1% 1% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[149] April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 7% 2% 0% 5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[150][upper-alpha 4] April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 37% 42% 10% – 2% 9%
Wall Street Journal[153] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 39% 13% 2% 1% 11%[lower-alpha 24]
Emerson College[156] March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 46% 7% 1% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[157] March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 12% 2% 1% 5%
Fox News[158] March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 10% 1% 2% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[160] February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 9% 1% 1% 8%
Emerson College[103] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 8% 1% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[196] January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 35% 43% 10% 1% 1% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R)[165][upper-alpha 30] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 32% 40% 9% 3% 2% 14%[lower-alpha 25]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 40% 10% 1% 1% 11%
J.L. Partners[167][upper-alpha 31] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 44% 5% 1% 0% 12%[lower-alpha 26]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
1983 Labs[198] June 28–30, 2024 492 (LV) ± 4.4% 33% 48% 8% 11%[lower-alpha 27]
P2 Insights[199][upper-alpha 36] June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 36% 47% 7% 10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[140] May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 9% 15%
501 (LV) 39% 43% 7% 11%
P2 Insights[200][upper-alpha 36] May 13–21, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 38% 41% 9% 12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] May 2–4, 2024 625 (LV) – 42% 44% 7% 7%[lower-alpha 28]
Data Orbital[202] April 27–29, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 38.8% 38.1% 13.5% 9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[203] March 14–17, 2024 516 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[204] December 28–30, 2023 808 (LV) – 35% 41% 10% 14%
VCreek/AMG (R)[165][upper-alpha 30] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 35% 40% 16% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[205] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 40% 10% 17%
New York Times/Siena College[206] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 33% 33% 26% 8%
603 (LV) 34% 34% 24% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[173] October 7–9, 2023 627 (LV) – 37% 42% 8% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		 Cornel
West
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
North Star Opinion Research[155][upper-alpha 21] March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 37% 18% 2% 10%
J.L. Partners[167][upper-alpha 31] November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 39% 4% 1% 22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[207] October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 40% 11% 1% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Cornel
West
Green		 Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Emerson College[174] August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 42% 4% 13%

<templatestyles src="Template:Hidden begin/styles.css"/>

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[148][upper-alpha 27] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 34% 52% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[148][upper-alpha 27] April 13–21, 2024 630 (LV) – 39% 46% 15%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College[103] February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 47% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 45% 49% 6%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 JB
Pritzker
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Josh
Shapiro
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 46% 11%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[101][upper-alpha 16] July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 46% 49% 5%

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Mark
Kelly
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Jill
Stein
Green		 Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[126][upper-alpha 19] July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 45% 6% 1% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Nikki
Haley
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[205] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 25% 19% 23%[lower-alpha 29]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Nikki
Haley
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R)[165][upper-alpha 30] December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 30% 37% 33%
New York Times/Siena College[208] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 38% 45% 17%
603 (LV) 37% 46% 17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		 Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[205] November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 34% 27% 17% 22%[lower-alpha 30]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Ron
DeSantis
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College[208] October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 46% 13%
603 (LV) 42% 46% 12%
Noble Predictive Insights[171] October 25 – 31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 40% 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[175][upper-alpha 33] July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[177][upper-alpha 33] June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[178][upper-alpha 33] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 47% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[179][upper-alpha 33] April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights[181] January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 36% 29%
Blueprint Polling (D)[182] January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 37% 43% 20%
Echelon Insights[187][upper-alpha 24] August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Mike
Pence
Republican		 Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[178][upper-alpha 33] May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 12%
File:Arizona County Flips 2024.svg
Arizona county flips from 2020 to 2024 presidential elections

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona[209]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,741,152 52.2% Increase 3.54%
Democratic
1,557,621 46.7% Decrease 2.96%
Green
17,903 0.5% Increase 0.45%
Libertarian
17,534 0.5% Decrease 1.02%
Write-in
Total votes 3,334,210 100.00%

See also

Notes

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Partisan clients

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References

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Template:State results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election

  1. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  2. ↑ Arizona projected for Trump by DDHQ, giving him all 7 swing states, KRON, November 7, 2024
  3. ↑ Why AP called Arizona for Trump, AP News, November 9, 2024
  4. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  5. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  6. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  7. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  8. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  9. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  10. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 At a glance: March 19 US presidential primary states and delegate counts, Reuters, March 19, 2024
  12. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  13. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  14. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  15. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  16. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  17. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  18. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  19. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  20. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  21. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  22. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  23. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  24. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  25. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  27. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  28. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  29. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  30. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  32. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  34. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  35. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  36. ↑ 36.0 36.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  37. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  38. ↑ 38.0 38.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  40. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  41. ↑ 41.0 41.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  43. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  44. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  45. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  46. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  47. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  48. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  50. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  52. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  53. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  54. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  55. ↑ 55.0 55.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  56. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  57. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  58. ↑ 58.0 58.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  59. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  60. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  61. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  62. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  63. ↑ 63.0 63.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  64. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  65. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  66. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  67. ↑ 67.0 67.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  68. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  69. ↑ 69.0 69.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  70. ↑ 70.0 70.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  71. ↑ 71.0 71.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  72. ↑ 72.0 72.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  73. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  74. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  75. ↑ 75.0 75.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  76. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  77. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  78. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  79. ↑ 79.0 79.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  80. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  81. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  82. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  83. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  84. ↑ 84.0 84.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  85. ↑ 85.0 85.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  86. ↑ 86.0 86.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  87. ↑ 87.0 87.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  88. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  89. ↑ 89.0 89.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  90. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  91. ↑ 91.0 91.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  92. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  93. ↑ 93.0 93.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  94. ↑ 94.0 94.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  95. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  96. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  97. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  98. ↑ 98.0 98.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  99. ↑ 99.0 99.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  100. ↑ 100.0 100.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  101. ↑ 101.0 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.4 101.5 101.6 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  102. ↑ 102.0 102.1 102.2 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  103. ↑ 103.0 103.1 103.2 103.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  104. ↑ 104.0 104.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  105. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  106. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  107. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  108. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  109. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  110. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  111. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  112. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  113. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  114. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  115. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  116. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  117. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  118. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  119. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  120. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  121. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  122. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  123. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  124. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  125. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  126. ↑ 126.0 126.1 126.2 126.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  127. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  128. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  129. ↑ 129.0 129.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  130. ↑ 130.0 130.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  131. ↑ 131.0 131.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  132. ↑ 132.0 132.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  133. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  134. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  135. ↑ 135.0 135.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  136. ↑ 136.0 136.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  137. ↑ 137.0 137.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  138. ↑ 138.0 138.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  139. ↑ 139.0 139.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  140. ↑ 140.0 140.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  141. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  142. ↑ 142.0 142.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  143. ↑ 143.0 143.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  144. ↑ 144.0 144.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  145. ↑ 145.0 145.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  146. ↑ 146.0 146.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  147. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  148. ↑ 148.0 148.1 148.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  149. ↑ 149.0 149.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  150. ↑ 150.0 150.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  151. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  152. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  153. ↑ 153.0 153.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  154. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  155. ↑ 155.0 155.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  156. ↑ 156.0 156.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  157. ↑ 157.0 157.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  158. ↑ 158.0 158.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  159. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  160. ↑ 160.0 160.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  161. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  162. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  163. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  164. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  165. ↑ 165.0 165.1 165.2 165.3 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  166. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  167. ↑ 167.0 167.1 167.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  168. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  169. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  170. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  171. ↑ 171.0 171.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  172. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  173. ↑ 173.0 173.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  174. ↑ 174.0 174.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  175. ↑ 175.0 175.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  176. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  177. ↑ 177.0 177.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  178. ↑ 178.0 178.1 178.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  179. ↑ 179.0 179.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  180. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  181. ↑ 181.0 181.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  182. ↑ 182.0 182.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  183. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  184. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  185. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  186. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  187. ↑ 187.0 187.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  188. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  189. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  190. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  191. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  192. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  193. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  194. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  195. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  196. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  197. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  198. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  199. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  200. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  201. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  202. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  203. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  204. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  205. ↑ 205.0 205.1 205.2 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  206. ↑ Script error: No such module "cite news".
  207. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
  208. ↑ 208.0 208.1 Script error: No such module "cite news".
  209. ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.


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