Michigan gubernatorial election, 2010
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The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm was prohibited by the state's Constitution from seeking a third term. This resulted in a large pool of candidates which was whittled down, when the May 11 filing deadline passed, to two Democrats and five Republicans.[1] Both the Cook Political Report and the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report rated the election as leaning Republican.[2][3]
The Republican primary race was highly competitive; both local and national polling reported Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder as being front-runners for the Republican Party nomination.[4][5][6][7] The Democratic front-runner when the 2009 polls were conducted, Lieutenant Governor John D. Cherry, withdrew from the race in January 2010.[8][9] The final polls just days before the primary election showed that, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero was in the lead, over a quarter of those polled were still undecided.[10] The deadline for candidates to file nominating petitions for the August 3 state primary was 4:00 PM on May 11, 2010.[1][11]
A total of 1,575,167 registered voters voted in the primaries, with 66.4% of them voting in the Republican primary.[12] Analysts believe a large portion of Democrats crossed party lines to vote for Snyder, whose ad campaign targeted bipartisan and independent support.[13] In Michigan, voters may vote in either primary regardless of their political affiliation, but can only vote for one party. Ballots with split tickets are not counted in partisan races. Both races came in more disparate than predicted. Snyder won with a near 10-point lead over closest rival Pete Hoekstra, and Bernero won with an even larger 17-point lead over early favorite state house speaker Andy Dillon. Both nominees portrayed themselves as political outsiders.[14] On August 25, Snyder appointed State Representative Brian Calley as his running mate.[15] On August 28, Bernero appointed Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate.[16]
Snyder won a decisive victory over Bernero in the general election, winning by nearly 20 percentage points.
Contents
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Virg Bernero, Mayor of Lansing[17]
- Andy Dillon, Speaker of the Michigan House of Representatives[18]
Withdrew
- Robert Bowman, former Michigan treasurer[19] (ended exploratory bid on February 15, 2010)
- John D. Cherry, Lieutenant Governor[9] (ended exploratory bid on January 5, 2010)
- Hansen Clarke, member of the Michigan Senate[20] (ended bid on January 15, 2010; ran for Congress instead)
- John Freeman, former member of the Michigan House of Representatives[21] (ended bid on January 11, 2010)
- Dan Kildee, former Genesee County Treasurer[22] (ended exploratory bid on March 5, 2010)
- Alma Wheeler Smith, member of the Michigan House of Representatives (ended exploratory bid on May 10, 2010)[23]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | John D. Cherry | Andy Dillon | George Perles | John Freeman | Alma Wheeler Smith | Dan Kildee | Virg Bernero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | July 28, 2010 | -- | 32% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 40% |
| EPIC-MRA | June 12–15, 2010 | -- | 34% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 25–27, 2010 | -- | 23% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26% |
| EPIC-MRA | May 22–26, 2010 | -- | 29% | -- | -- | -- | -- | 23% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 22, 2010 | -- | 13% | -- | -- | 9% | -- | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 24, 2010 | -- | 12% | -- | -- | 10% | -- | 8% |
| Denno-Noor Research | March 3–5, 2010 | -- | 13% | -- | -- | 6% | 6% | 11% |
| EPIC-MRA | February 22–25, 2010 | -- | 17% | -- | -- | 7% | 12% | 8% |
| Detroit Free Press | November 12–17, 2009 | 20% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 2% | -- | -- |
| EPIC-MRA | October 11–15, 2009 | 33% | -- | 3% | 2% | 5% | -- | -- |
| Marketing Resource Group | September 12–20, 2009 | 40% | -- | -- | 9% | 8% | -- | -- |
Results
| Primary election results[24] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Democratic | Virg Bernero | 309,235 | 58.6 | |
| Democratic | Andy Dillon | 218,884 | 41.4 | |
| Total votes | 528,119 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Mike Bouchard, Sheriff of Oakland County[25][26]
- Mike Cox, Michigan Attorney General[27]
- Tom George, State Senator[28]
- Peter Hoekstra, U.S. Representative[29]
- Rick Snyder, businessman
Withdrew
- David Kniffen, businessman[30][31]
- Terri Lynn Land, Michigan Secretary of State (became Bouchard's running mate)[32]
- Tim Rujan, Huron County Commissioner (failed to qualify)[33][34]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Mike Cox | Peter Hoekstra | Mike Bouchard | Rick Snyder | Tom George | David Kniffen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | July 29, 2010 | 24% | 23% | 10% | 26% | 1% | -- |
| Detroit News 4/WDIV | July 18, 2010 | 26.4% | 25.6% | 11.6% | 20.2% | 1.8% | -- |
| EPIC-MRA | June 12–15, 2010 | 26% | 24% | 16% | 20% | 2% | -- |
| Public Policy Polling | May 25–27, 2010 | 17% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 9% | -- |
| EPIC-MRA | May 22–26, 2010 | 18% | 30% | 16% | 17% | 2% | -- |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 22, 2010 | 13% | 28% | 9% | 14% | -- | -- |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 30, 2010 | 13% | 27% | 6% | 18% | -- | -- |
| Marketing Research Group | March 10–15, 2010 | 21% | 21% | 10% | 20% | 1% | - |
| Denno-Noor Research | March 3–5, 2010 | 12% | 28% | 8% | 18% | 2% | -- |
| EPIC-MRA | February 22–25, 2010 | 21% | 27% | 10% | 12% | 1% | -- |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | November 17–19, 2009 | 27% | 24% | 12% | 3% | 3% | -- |
| Detroit Free Press | November 12–17, 2009 | 15% | 21% | 13% | 5% | 3% | -- |
| EPIC-MRA | October 11–15, 2009 | 28% | 29% | -- | 14% | 3% | 2% |
| Marketing Resource Group | September 12–20, 2009 | 27% | 23% | 15% | -- | -- | -- |
| Marketing Resource Group | March 4–10, 2009 | 15% | 17% | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Results
| Republican primary results[24] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| Republican | Rick Snyder | 381,327 | 36.4 | |
| Republican | Pete Hoekstra | 280,976 | 26.8 | |
| Republican | Mike Cox | 240,409 | 23.0 | |
| Republican | Mike Bouchard | 127,350 | 12.2 | |
| Republican | Tom George | 16,986 | 1.6 | |
| Total votes | 1,044,925 | 100 | ||
Other parties
Based on past election performance, the Libertarian Party of Michigan, Green Party of Michigan, and the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan (affiliated with the Constitution Party) have automatic ballot access for the general election, but by state law they must nominate candidates through party conventions rather than primary elections. The Natural Law Party also has automatic ballot access in Michigan, but chose not to run a candidate for Governor in 2010.
Libertarian Party candidates
The Libertarian Party of Michigan nominee was Kenneth Proctor.[35] The nomination was won at the Michigan Libertarian Convention held in Okemos, Michigan on Saturday, May 22, in accordance with Michigan state law. He beat out Bhagwan Dashairya, who had been the 2006 U.S. Taxpayers Party nominee for governor. The delegates ended up selecting Dashairya as the Libertarian nominee for U.S. Congress in District 8.
Proctor's running mate was Dr. Erwin Haas, Maryland of Grand Rapids. Haas received the Lt. Governor nomination unanimously.
Green Party candidates
The Green Party of Michigan held their statewide nominating convention July 31 and August 1 in Lansing, Michigan, and nominated Harley Mikkelson for Governor and Lynn Meadows for Lieutenant Governor.[36]
U.S. Taxpayers Party candidates
The 2010 U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan convention was held on June 26 in East Lansing, Michigan. In a nearly unanimous vote, Stacey Mathia and Chris Levels were formally nominated as candidates of the U.S. Taxpayers Party of Michigan for the offices of Governor and Lt. Governor.
According to Stacey Mathia's official press release, "The Convention applauded Mathia's agenda to institute Law-Abiding Constitutional Government and State Sovereignty in order to free the People of Michigan from the political oppression of big government operating outside of its authority."[37]
The press release also stated, "Chris Levels, is currently well known as a radio talk show host on WSNL in the Flint, Michigan area. His last minute nomination speech will be available on Mathia's website. The USTPM Convention gave him a standing applause."
General election
Debates
On August 12, it was reported that Virg Bernero accepted invitations to three debates. The first debate would be held September 21 and sponsored by WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids. The second debate would be held October 7 and be broadcast on 55 radio and TV stations throughout the state. The third debate would be held October 21 and would be sponsored by WXYZ-TV, WWJ (AM) and Crain's Detroit Business.[38] Then in early September, Bernero offered Snyder a deal of eight debates. Snyder proposed a counter-offer of three debates, which Bernero refused.[39] A Detroit Free Press editorial was critical of Snyder for not agreeing to debates.[40] Bernero called Snyder a wimp for not agreeing to debate him.[41] An impromptu debate developed after Bernero crashed a town hall meeting Snyder was hosting in Westland on September 13.[42] The two sides agreed to an hour-long televised debate, broadcast on October 10 from the studios of WTVS in Wixom.[43] A group of Detroit clergy have invited the two major party candidates to a debate there on October 21. Only Bernero accepted the invitation.[44]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Virg Bernero (D) | Rick Snyder (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 | October 25–26, 2010 | 35% | 53% |
| Free Press/WXYZ-TV Channel 7 | October 23–26, 2010 | 37% | 55% |
| Rossman Group/Team TelCom | October 18, 2010 | 36% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 17, 2010 | 34% | 54% |
| Mitchell Research | October 10, 2010 | 29% | 49% |
| EPIC-MRA | October 3–7, 2010 | 29% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 20, 2010 | 38% | 51% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 17–19, 2010 | 31% | 52% |
| Mitchell Research | August 25–29, 2010 | 26% | 53% |
| Detroit News | August 9–10, 2010 | 32% | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 4, 2010 | 37% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 10, 2010 | 30% | 42% |
| Public Policy Polling | May 25–27, 2010 | 28% | 44% |
| EPIC-MRA | May 22–26, 2010 | 28% | 51% |
| EPIC-MRA | March 28–31, 2010 | 29% | 42% |
| Michigan Research Group | March 10–15, 2010 | 26% | 42% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report | Likely R[45] | October 29, 2010 |
| Rothenberg | Safe R[46] | October 28, 2010 |
| Swing State Project | Safe R[citation needed] | |
| RealClearPolitics | Solid R[47] | October 29, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R[48] | October 28, 2010 |
| Rasmussen Reports | Safe R[48] | October 20, 2010 |
| CQ Politics | Lean R[49] | October 29, 2010 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Snyder | 1,874,834 | 58.11% | +15.81% | |
| Democratic | Virg Bernero | 1,287,320 | 39.90% | -16.46% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Proctor | 22,390 | 0.69% | +0.08% | |
| Constitution | Stacey Mathia | 20,818 | 0.65% | +0.46% | |
| Green | Harley Mikkelson | 20,699 | 0.64% | +0.12% | |
| Write-ins | 27 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ||
| Majority | 587,514 | 18.21% | +4.15% | ||
| Turnout | 3,226,088 | -15.13% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | Swing | ||||
See also
References
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- Elections in Michigan from the Michigan Secretary of State
- Michigan Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
- Campaign contributions for 2010 Michigan Governor from Follow the Money
- 2010 Michigan Governor General Election: Rick Snyder (R) vs Virg Bernero (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Michigan Governor from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Michigan Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Michigan Governor's Race from CQ Politics
- Race Profile in The New York Times
- Debates
- Michigan Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, June 21, 2010
- Michigan Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, June 24, 2010
- Michigan Republican Gubernatorial Primary Debate on C-SPAN, July 13, 2010
- Official campaign sites
- Virg Bernero
- Mike Bouchard
- Mike Cox
- Andy Dillon
- Tom George
- Pete Hoekstra
- Stacey Mathia
- Ken Proctor
- Rick Snyder
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Michigan political parties
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| Major parties (ballot-qualified) |
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| Minor parties (ballot-qualified) | ||
| Minor parties (not ballot-qualified) | ||
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ http://www.detnews.com/article/20100105/POLITICS02/1050391/Lt.-Gov.-Cherry-won-t-run-for-governor
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- ↑ http://www.freep.com/article/20100729/NEWS15/100729056/1319/Snyder-holds-edge-in-tight-GOP-governors-race
- ↑ [1][dead link]
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2010/08/its_a_go_rick_snyder_names_bri.html
- ↑ http://www.freep.com/article/20100828/NEWS15/100828017/1318/Lawrence-to-back-up-Bernero-on-Democratic-ticket
- ↑ [2][dead link]
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ [3][dead link]
- ↑ State Sen. Hansen Clarke drops out of governor's race, Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau, published January 15, 2010
- ↑ Freeman out of gov's race, Bowman may be interested, Mark Hornbeck / Detroit News Lansing Bureau, published January 12, 2010
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
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- ↑ http://www.detnews.com/article/20090603/POLITICS02/906030408/1361/Bouchard-enters-race-for-governor
- ↑ http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081107/POLITICS/811070368
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- ↑ http://www.staceymathia2010.com/uploads/33643459-Stacey-Mathia-and-Chris-Levels-Formally-Nominated.pdf[dead link]
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.
- ↑ Lua error in package.lua at line 80: module 'strict' not found.[dead link]
- ↑ http://www.freep.com/article/20100912/OPINION01/100911027/Not-debating-isn-t-an-option
- ↑ http://www.annarbor.com/news/not-only-is-rick-snyder-a-nerd-hes-also-a-wimp-says-virg-bernero/
- ↑ http://www.freep.com/article/20100913/NEWS15/100913063/1318/Debate-held-after-Bernero-crashes-Snyders-meeting
- ↑ http://wwj.cbslocal.com/2010/09/22/mich-gov-hopefuls-agree-to-debate/
- ↑ http://wwj.cbslocal.com/2010/10/14/detroit-clergy-demand-gubernatorial-debate/
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- ↑ http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/results/10GEN/02000000.html
- Pages with reference errors
- Pages with broken file links
- Articles with unsourced statements from October 2010
- Michigan elections, 2010
- Michigan gubernatorial elections
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2010
- Articles with dead external links from August 2010
- Articles with dead external links from October 2010
- Articles with dead external links from November 2010
